Research On The Safety Stock Management Of Finished Products In BS Company Under The Condition Of Uncertain Demand

Since 2008,China's automobile industry has developed rapidly,and automobiles have become an indispensable part of people's daily life.However,in today's full of opportunities and challenges,the demand of the automotive market is becoming increasingly uncertain,automobile and its parts manufacturers are faced with the task of reducing costs and optimizing stock,and have put forward higher requirements for stock management.As a buffer stock,safety stock can effectively reduce the risk of stock-out brought about by the uncertainty of demand.In the environment of uncertain market demand,the setting of safety stock is particularly important.BS company is the Chinese branch of Bosch,a well-known auto parts supplier,and has established a long-term and stable cooperative relationship with Geely.Facing the situation that Geely's order demand often exceeds the actual demand,BS company has problems of inaccurate demand forecast and random safety stock setting,which leads to the coexistence of high stock cost and high risk cost.Therefore,the main purpose of this article is to propose a high-precision demand forecasting model and safety stock calculation method.In the aspect of demand prediction,this paper first established the GM(1,n)model using the grey system forecasting method.However,due to the problem of low accuracy,the Markov chain is used to correct the relative error of the result,which reduces the average relative error between the prediction result and the actual data.In terms of the safety stock setting,factors affecting safety stock include service level and demand uncertainty,the service level can be measured from the two aspects of cycle supply level and product supply rate.So this paper,based on the continuous stock strategy of BS company,proposes two formulas for calculating the safety stock amount when the demand is uncertain and the lead time is certain,and combines the results of the two types of material demand forecasting for example calculation.Finally,based on the above research,several reasonable suggestions were proposed to BS company from the aspects of stock management and supply chain management,etc.,which provided a reference for decision makers of BS.The research shows that the markov chain can significantly improve the accuracy of the gray prediction model,it can better reflect the fluctuations of the actual data,and the fitting effect has outstanding advantages.At the same time,according to the calculation of the safety stock and the reorder point of the sample material under different service levels and uncertain demand parameters,the influence of the twofactors on the safety stock was verified.The two calculation methods of safety stock can not only help BS company to optimize its stock while maintaining the same service level,but also can become a calculation method to improve customer service level.This paper provides a solution for the stock management of BS company and provides an inportant reference for the safety stock calculation of other enterprises under continuous stock strategy.