| According to statistics,after 2018,the automobile market broke through trillion scale,with an annual growth rate of more than 30%.The rise of China's automotive aftermarket will bring business opportunities to related industries,including the field of parts supply chain.With the gradual maturity of China's automobile market,the development potential of the after-sales market will be gradually released,and the position of parts business in the future development strategy of vehicle enterprises will also be enhanced,which will become one of the key areas of market competition in the future.In view of the various types of automobile after-sales parts,the variety of parts demand,the high demand of customers for service level,and the difficulty of inventory management,this paper first divides the automobile after-sales parts into intermittent demand and non intermittent demand parts according to the characteristics of automobile after-sales parts demand.On the basis of classification,the exponential smoothing model based on state space is used for non intermittent demand,and the modified Croton forecasting method and bootstrap forecasting method are used for intermittent demand.Secondly,on the basis of spare parts demand forecast,the paper proposes the method of using the state space based exponential smoothing model to calculate the variance of demand in the lead time,so as to calculate the reasonable safety stock Analysis.Finally,this paper takes the historical spare parts demand data of A4 S shop under a car after-sales branch as an example,and carries out the practical operation of spare parts classification,spare parts demand prediction and spare parts safety stock calculation,and carries out simulation experiments to prove the effectiveness and rationality of the method of safety stock in this paper,so as to provide reference experience and guidance for the majority of automobile after-sales spare parts The purpose of reducing inventory cost and improving customer service level. |
PDF Full Text Request