Demand Forecast Of The Auto Parts And Research On Safety Inventory

With the development of China's economy,the development of the automobile industry,the increase of competition and the more demanding requirements for the enterprises,it is becoming more and more difficult for the enterprises to gain the benefit.More enterprises have turned to the profit acquisition of the supply chain link.Through the implementation of the Joint management inventory,the production plan is reasonably arranged through information sharing,so as to save money and avoid unnecessary cost consumption.At the same time,the inventory management has also put forward higher requirements for enterprises.We must make a combination of high definition,high level and high efficiency.The level of safety stock is determined by the demand forecast.The more accurate the prediction is,the smaller the safety stock is,the more money the enterprise will save.The level of safety stock is determined by the demand forecast.The more accurate the prediction is,the smaller the safety stock is,the more money the enterprise will save.(1)This paper describes the research background,aiming at the present development of auto parts service industry,that is,the auto parts industry is in an upward stage.With the increase of car demand and the change of income and consumption concept,the auto parts industry has a large market,and there are also many shortcomings.These shortcomings often have positive or lateral damage to the development and benefit of the enterprise.Therefore,the research content to be carried out is put forward.(2)This paper analyzes the role played by inventory in the daily production of enterprises,and the general classification of inventory,and analyzes the actual benefits that the optimized inventory can bring to enterprises.At the same time,the auto parts are classified according to ABC-FSN,which optimized the complicated and disorderly problem in inventory management process.(3)This paper expounds the essence of supply chain management,analyzes the importance of supply chain to auto parts enterprise,and the unique character of auto parts in the supply chain,carries out information sharing to obtain the high utilization of all kinds of information flow,and then completes the selection of order mode.(4)By comparing the three prediction models,the grey prediction model is difficult to solve when dealing with the fluctuating data.And the predictive effect of BP artificial neural network is more excellent,but it is easy to fall into the local extremum and is more unstable.The GA-BP artificial neural network has obvious advantages,its error is relatively small and the prediction is more elaborate,because it doesn't fall into the local extremum like BP artificial neural network,and can better explain the trend of data and the internal relationship.So the advantage of GA-BP artificial neural network in the prediction of auto parts is very obvious.(5)The shortcomings of inventory management are analyzed,and the improvement is proposed,and at the same time,the role of safety stock in the daily operation of enterprises is outlined.Based on the role of turnover inventory and safety inventory,combined with the results predicted in the fourth chapter that set up a security inventory,and the inventory of the inventory is more scientifically controlled,effectively helping the enterprise to reduce the pressure.