Analysis Of The Potential Economic Impact Of The Opening Of The Kela Isthmus Canal On Related Countries

General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed the concept of the "21st Century Maritime Silk Road" when he visited ASEAN countries in October 2013.His move is intended to strengthen the building of China-ASEAN Community of Destiny and deepen economic and trade integration.The Southeast Asian waterway is an important water channel for China and ASEAN countries to trade with Europe,Africa,and West Asia.The Malacca Strait,as the Southeast Asia waterway with the most traffic,has been criticized by many people.The concept of the Kra Isthmus Canal provides a choice for solving the dilemma of Southeast Asia waterway development.Program.The Kra Isthmus Canal can save the cost and time cost of maritime logistics freight transportation,increase the frequency,speed and convenience of regional maritime trade,and promote bilateral trade among regional countries.In order to analyze the potential economic impact of the opening of the Kra Isthmus Canal on various countries,the 10 th edition of the latest released GTAP database was used for quantitative analysis of the model.This article divides the GTAP database into 14 regions and 8 industries,sets the shipping cost change of the countries affected by the opening of the canal as the coefficient of freight technology progress change,and sets the proportion of re-exports in Singapore and Malaysia related industries to the export as the coefficient of industry technological progress change.Assuming three different simulation scenarios,the above coefficients are used as shock variables to simulate the impact of the opening of the canal on various aspects of the economy of various countries.The simulation results show that when the Kra Isthmus Canal diverges half of the traffic volume of the Malacca Strait,its opening will promote the growth of the global economy,but different regions will benefit differently.Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand,Cambodia and Vietnam and other Asian countries such as India and China are the beneficiaries of the opening of the canal,while Singapore,Malaysia and Indonesia are the injured parties.The simulation results of different scenarios show that with the enhancement of the substitution effect of the Kala Isthmus Canal on the Malacca Strait,the benefits and damages of various countries have gradually increased.Finally,this paper summarizes the main interest groups existing in the opening of the Kra Isthmus Canal and their views based on the geographical characteristics of the Kra Isthmus Canal and the differences in their economic impacts on various economies.Based on this,the enlightenment of China’s relevant development strategies is drawn.