Study On The Economic Impact Of Waterway Regulations Project In Gaochun Section Of Wuhu-shanghai Line

Waterway has the features of large volume, energy province, low tariffs, less pollution and so on. Accelerating the development of water transport is conducive to build the integrated transport system, and it is also the requirements of sustainable development strategy. Channel planning of Wuhu-Shanghai line is an important part of the high-level navigation channel planning devised by Ministry of Transportation for Yangtze River Delta. The channel improvement project of Wuhu-Shanghai line provides a strong support to the adoption of channel capacity, and the regional economic integration, and rational distribution of the industries along the river. The Waterway Improvement Project of Gaochun Section of Wuhu-Shanghai line (WRPGSW), with total length of about 54 km, is about to be invested about 2.2 billion yuan. This paper also analyzes the impact of WRPGSW in-depth. The paper covers the following main contents:First, this paper analyzes the present situation of the economics and transportation of Gaochun.Based on this, the system cluster is used to analyze the status of Gaochun economics among the 14 counties (cities) in Southern Jiangsu Province. Logistic curve model and genetic algorithm is used to predict the future development of the first, second and tertiary industries and GDP of Gaochun. The economic forecasts with the high, medium and low options of Gaochun economic are put forward.Then, input-output method is used to analyze the national economy impaction of WRPGSW. According to input-output method, the direct and indirect added value(including backward ripple effect, before the ripple effect ripple effect and consumption) brought about by WRPGSW is calculated. The GDP contribution rate and contribution to the equivalent created by WRPGSW are counted also.In the third part, the national economy impact of waterway transportation development in Wuhu-Shanghai line Gaochun Section is analyzed. Firstly, the water transport status of Wuhu-Shanghai line Gaochun Section is analyzed, and then the water transport development based on trends, transfer, and induced increase cargo in future is predicted. The national economy impact of water transport development in Wuhu-Shanghai line Gaochun Section constitutes qualitative and quantitative analysis. For qualitative analysis, the relationship between traffic volume and economy development in Nanjing city is analyzed based on VAR model. First, the original data in ADF unit root test is conducted, and then the relationship between transport and local economic is analyzed according to the results of co-integration and Granger causality test. With the method of VAR, the relationship between transportation and development of economic are established through impulse response functions. For quantitative analysis, the relationship between maritime develop and GDP is analyzed by BP Neural Network. Using the trained neural network, the basis of statistical data in 2008, the quantitative estimation of stimulating effect of water transport development is ranged between 5% and 40%.Finally, the national economy impact of waterway development in Wuhu-Shanghai line Gaochun Section is analyzed. The present problems and further study place needed is proposed.