Research On Group Multi-day Travel Behaviour And Simulation Analysis

The target of this research is to understand the behavior mechanism and time-space pattern of group multi-day leisure travel,explore the relationship between travel behavior and individual and environmental factors and realize the then quantitative analysis of macro-effects of leisure travel.The existing researches on leisure travel behavior mostly focus on the descriptive analysis of travel patterns at the macro level,but it lacks quantitative analysis of the behavioral characteristics of individuals,which means it is not enough to provide systematic guidance for related industries.This study proposes a method called the Agent Based Simulation which can simulate the route of individual leisure travel.The macroscopic distribution and microscopic travel rules can be reflected through Agent Based Simulation.This study designs a set of methodology containing questionnaire survey,choice behavior modeling and travel rule formulation,and explores the validation methods for simulation model and the analysis method of simulation results which confirms the application value of Agent Based Simulation.The Agent Based Simulation can not only explain the behavior mechanism of multi-day leisure travel,but also provide reference for the development of leisure travel and transporation infrastructure in various scenarios.Based on the questionnaire data that can reflect the group attributes and travel routes,three choice models are established to describe the destination selection behavior,travel time selection behavior and transportation mode selection behavior to analyze the influencing factors.The results show that,in addition to the objective environmental condition attributes,the elderly and children with weaker physical function have significant impact on the choice behavior of travel group.Based on the utility maximization principle of leisure travel,the mathematical description reflecting group travel arrangement is constructed.With the conclusion of group choice behavior models and the setting of objective environment attributes of transportation network and travel destination,an Agent Based Simulation model is completely established.According to the principle and mechanism of Agent Based Simulation,the solution method to find the virtual group itinerary is proposed.The validity of the Agent Based Simulation is verified by comparing the simulation results with government statistics data,social media data and partial questionnaire data.The advantages of different types of statics data are fully utilized.The government statistics data is used to verify the macroscopic distribution of simulation results.The social media data is used to verify the destination transfer characteristics of simulation results.The questionnaire data is used to verify the travel behavior of different group in simulation results.It is concluded that the Agent Based Simulation can well imitate the behavioral characteristics of group leisure travel.The results of the Agent Based Simulation are analysed from many aspects.The community discovery algorithm in graph theory is used to divide the transfer network,and 14 tourism circles which reflect the spatial collaboration of tourism resources are obtained.The development characteristics of leisure travel in destination cities are analyzed by Page Rank algorithm,initial arrival rate and transfer arrival rate.The impact of high speed rail,the spatial spillover effect of leisure travel and the spatial cooperation of tourism resources are quantitatively analyzed.All these analysis confirms the application value of the Agent Based Simulation.