Research On Design Risk Evaluation Of Super High-rise Prefabricated Housing Project

As the prefabricated buildings have a series of advantages over the traditional cast-in-place buildings,such as green energy conservation,efficient construction and sustainable development,the central government and local governments at all levels have successively issued relevant policies since 2016 to vigorously promote the development of prefabricated buildings in China.At present,the government indemnificatory housing is still the main support for the development of prefabricated buildings in China.As the main force to promote the urbanization process,the major real estate developers do not have mature technology and management system,so they have low enthusiasm for the development of prefabricated buildings,which is not conducive to the industrial development of the construction industry.With the acceleration of the urbanization process and the concentration of population in the central cities,the construction land resources are increasingly scarce.In the future,the prefabricated buildings will be combined with high-rise and super high-rise buildings,which will bring new challenges to the real estate developers in the aspects of design,component production and construction,cost control,etc.In order to accurately identify the design risk of super high-rise prefabricated buildings,reduce or avoid a series of losses caused by the design risk,and promote the rapid development of prefabricated buildings,based on the perspective of real estate developers,this paper studies the design risk evaluation of the residential formats of super high-rise prefabricated buildings,and provides relevant risk decision-making basis for real estate developers to develop such projects.First of all,this paper analyzes the process and content of each design stage of prefabricated housing,on the basis of this analysis of its possible design risks,and combined with the design of super-high-rise housing to explore the design risks when the two combined.Secondly,based on the literature research and expert investigation method,the design risk index of super high-rise prefabricated housing project is preliminarily screened,and the reliability,validity test and confirmatory factor analysis of the survey data of the initial index are carried out by using SPSS software.Finally,the risk evaluation index system of super high-rise prefabricated housing design with 22 risk indexes in 5 dimensions is established.Then,using the analytic hierarchy process to determine the index weight,using the The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to construct the design risk evaluation model of super high-rise prefabricated housing project,and the application research is carried out in combination with the actual cases.The risk size of each stage of design is from high to low in order of design control risk,construction drawing and deepening design risk,preliminary design risk,scheme design risk,technical planning risk.Finally,according to the results of risk analysis and risk evaluation,some suggestions are put forward in order to give enlightenment and reference to the actual risk management of this kind of project.Based on the perspective of real estate developers,this paper makes an in-depth analysis and evaluation of the design risk of super high-rise prefabricated housing,which can enrich and improve the research on the design risk evaluation of super high-rise and prefabricated buildings,and provide investment decision-making basis for real estate developers,so as to better serve the development of prefabricated buildings in China.