Research On Risk Management Of Hualin Group’s CaiyunchengReal Estate Project In Yantai City

During nearly 20 years of development since the beginning of housing reform in 1998, our real estate industry has gradually become mature. Its aura of China’s economic engine, high profit, and the safest investment has faded gradually. The project Caiyuncheng of Yantai Hualin Construction Group is born in the background. It is now imminent to fully understand, identify, demonstrate and treat various risks for the project.For the above reasons, connecting with the practical situation of the real estate project Caiyuncheng which as a carrier, the paper puts the theory of project risk management into the specific real estate project in order to realize the research value of this paper. The research content of this.paper is generally summarized as follows:In the first part, after introduction of the background of this paper and summarization of the significance of the research, comprehensive analysis and comparison is made on some theories and models of risk identification, risk early warning, risk assessment and testing, risk prevention of real estate industry both at home and abroad. The characteristics of three aspects are summarized. Then the research content and technical route is illuminate.In the second part, we clarify the concepts of risk and risk management, and make comparative introductions of risk management theoretical methods of the real estate project in order to select the suitable research methods for the project.In the third part, it is discussed that following chronological order of the project development, five notable risks are identified by means of Delphi and subdivided into seventeen sub risk factors.In chapter 4, the weight of the risk factors identified in chapter 3 is determined by using AHP method, and such five high risk factors as policy risk, financing period risk, land purchase risk, financial risk and liquidity risk are selected from the seventeen sub risk factors. Then, critical evaluation is made on the identified project risks by Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation. And sensitivity and Break-Even point of the project are analyzed. Finally, the general conclusion is that the project is feasible whose risks are within the acceptable range.The paper pays attention to the study in the risk management process and the application of risk management methods of real estate projects. And in chapter 5, combined with the characteristics of the project Caiyuncheng of Yantai Hualin Construction Group, according to the important risks identified in chapter 3 and determined in chapter 4 such as policy risk, land purchase risk, financing risk, financial risk and liquidity risk etc., some countermeasures are put forward.In the last part, we sum up the research results and shortcomings and put forward prospects to the future research.The innovation of the paper:firstly, applying risk management theory to specific project and establishing risk management method and index for specific project; secondly regarding risk management as a dynamic ecosystem of a systematic, systematic process, and therefore making a discussion of risk defense system of a specific project. The paper may afford some reference for the risk defense of Caiyuncheng project.