A Research On Contractor's Risk Early Warning Of International Construction Project

With the increasing of members of the World Trade Organization and proceeding of the integration with the World economy, the way of cooperation on engineering services tends to be international. Our native construction enterprises are obtaining more and more opportunities to compete with foreign construction contractors in market of international construction service. To make an international construction contractor gain a sound and favorable development, what accounts is to achieve an efficient risk management in construction project. As for risk management in construction project, the key point of improving management performance is to make an early prediction on risks of international construction project. The research in this thesis, on early warning mode of risks of international construction project, is raised mainly for the practical demands mentioned above. The purpose of the research is to discover the way risk management affects project with an opinion of early warning. Simultaneously, this research does some active explorations work towards risk early warning theory of construction project, which is an area few native researchers have touched.The research work in this thesis mainly includes,1. Starting with the concept of international project, an analysis on international project under WTO environment is done. Then a systematic category is given on risks which international construction contractor may come across, from the different areas including political, economical, commercial, social and engineering etc.2. A statement is made on the basic conceptions of project risk management, followed by a summary about contents and procedures of project risk management.3. This thesis has a discussion on the design and the running of risk early warning management system. The setting up of the risk early warning management system is initiated from risk identification. With the help of risk repository and risk identification tools, we can get the input items of risk early warning analysis, i.e.risk information. The remaining early warning analysis consists of two process, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. The quantitative analysis is oriented with the early warning index the thesis proposes. Rules for reference of risk warning are built according to respective index. Case-based reasoning theory and entropie theory are used in risk early warning analysis. Then the running of risk early warning system is analyzed.4. The thesis extends the early warning research to uncertainty management. Beginning with the uncertain characteristics of risk, analysis is made on current risk management theory and practice. Then the conceptions of uncertainty management and uncertainty value chain management are suggested. Finally, the risk early warning analysis process is reconstructed with the application of supply chain theory.The research in this thesis is positioned in finding out the fundamentals and structure of international project risk early-warning management and the linkage between risk control and risk analysis and stimulating the use of risk management, which is helpful to discover the cost and function of project risk management. Consequently, it has certain worth of reference to the risk management practice of international construction project enterprises.