Research On Early Warning Of Flight Delay Based On Cooperative Decision Mechanism

The situation of flight delays often occur in daily life,and the consequence caused by flight delays is becoming more serious.Flight delays not only cause serious economic losses,it also have the potential to trigger unsafe events.If effective early warning management of flight delays can be made before its arrive,it will not only reduce economic losses,but also enable flights to operate safely and efficiently.At present,the Collaborative Decision Making(CDM)mechanism has matured in China,and large hub airports with domestic throughput of tens of millions have begun to use Airport-Collaborative Decision Making System(A-CDM),but a large amount of collaborative decision-making data has not been fully utilized,resulting in a great waste of resources.This article focuses on large hub airports,using the CDM mechanism as the research background,through the sharing of information resources,using the available flight delay information to achieve effective early warning,and then through the information sharing function of the CDM mechanism,the warning level of the field is released in collaborative decision-making Platform,so that air traffic control and airlines and other departments will fully prepared based on early warning of early warning management measures.The main research contents of this article are as follows:(1)Discussed the background of the topic selection and related concepts of flight delays,summarized the theory of early warning management,and explained the process of early warning management of flight delays.Analyzed the CDM mechanism and the core elements of A-CDM mechanism.The operating process analyzes the factors affecting flight delays based on the statistical bulletin for the development of the civil aviation industry,and processes the large-area flight delay warning data obtained by the air traffic network to obtain the airport’s large-area flight delay warning distribution law.(2)Determine the early warning indicator system and early warning magnitude classification of this article by comparing the early warning indicator system and early warning magnitude classification before and after the collaborative decision mechanism,and based on the guiding ideology and basic principles for the establishment of the flight delay early warning indicator system.Based on the emergency response plan for large-area flight delays at the reference airport,the flight delay warning classification table of this paper is obtained.(3)Building matter-element model of early warning level evaluation of flight delay,combine extension correlation function and matter-element model,coordinate decision-making mechanism and flight delay early warning,calculate the correlation between flight delay and delay early warning levels.The early warning level is determined based on the quantified value of the correlation degree.The airport then informs the air traffic controller and the airline of the delayed early warning level through a collaborative decision system.The system can realize early warning processing for large-area flight delays and control flight delays within a certain range.(4)Based on the summary of the full text,I establish an early warning management mechanism of flight delay under collaborative decision-making,and elaborate the process framework of early warning management mechanism of flight delay under collaborative decision-making: flight delay monitoring mechanism,flight delay diagnosis mechanism,flight delay warning mechanism and flight delay feedback mechanism.