Research On Comprehensive Evaluation And Prediction Of Rail Transit Based On Grey System Theory

With the rapid development of urban and rail transit network systems,it becomes more convenient for citizens to travel,and rail transit gradually becomes the best mode of transportation to alleviate traffic congestion.However,there are also some prominent problems,such as the derailment between the development speed of rail transit system and the speed of urban development,the mismatch between the layout scale and social needs,and the lack of scientific transportation planning.Aiming at these problems,this paper studies the rail transit system(taking subway and high-speed railway as examples)in Hangzhou.In this paper,the development status of rail transit network system is analyzed effectively,which provides a reliable basis for urban traffic planning and construction,and a scientific reference for relevant decision makers.In this paper,grey system theory is used to evaluate and predict rail transit network system.Based on the comprehensive consideration of the influencing factors of urban rail transit network system,the comprehensive evaluation index system is determined.A comprehensive evaluation model of urban rail transit network system is established by grey relational analysis.To verify whether the model can correctly,scientifically reflect the status of the development of urban rail transit network,it is applied to Hangzhou metro network system,the evaluation results show that Hangzhou metro layout is reasonable,accord with the current development situation.This proves that the model method can make a comprehensive,scientific and objective evaluation of urban rail transit planning.The traditional GM(1,1)model and the GM(1,1)prediction model with seasonal factors correction were established based on the statistical data of Hangzhou railway passenger volume in each quarter from 2016 to 2019.The error tests were conducted on the two groups of predicted data and the actual data respectively.Through the comprehensive analysis of theory and application,it is concluded that the error of the prediction value of the two prediction models is within the qualified range,and the prediction accuracy of the model after seasonal correction is higher.It is proved that the modified model is more practical in dealing with data series with trend and seasonal components and has positive significance for urban traffic and economic development.