Power Load Forecasting And Power Grid Of A County In South China Planning Study

With the progress of electric power technology,electric energy has been increasingly applied in social production activities.The development of electric power industry provides an important material basis for the modernization of national economy and the general improvement of people’s living standard.To a large extent,the electrification degree of ordinary industry,heavy industry,residents’ life,service industry and other fields has become a key index to measure the modernization level of an economy.At present,with the continuous expansion of county economy scale and the rapid development of service industry,the economic and social development of electricity demand is increasingly diversified.In order to adapt to the new situation of power construction and management,in recent years,power grid enterprises increasingly pay attention to the planning work of county-level power grid.In this context,this paper carries out load forecasting and network planning for a county power grid,and studies the development planning method suitable for county-level power grid.The main work includes:(1)Analyze the current situation of power grid in a county in south China.This paper briefly describes the economic and social development of a county,summarizes the basic data of a county’s power grid,and analyzes the current situation and existing problems of a county’s power grid,including the distribution of hydropower,wind power and other power sources within the county,as well as the current situation and deficiency of 35 k V and above power grid layout and grid frame.According to the problems existing in a county power grid,the planning objectives and main technical principles are formulated.(2)Improve the load forecasting method and forecast the long-term load of a county in south China.The load characteristics of a county power network are analyzed and the data of electric power quantity over the years are statistically processed.The traditional GM(1,1)prediction model has some problems,such as insufficient overall prediction accuracy and outdated data trend in long-term prediction.In this paper,an improved particle swarm optimization method is proposed to optimize the main parameters of the grey model.Taking the fitting accuracy and prediction trend of the prediction algorithm as indexes,the longitudinal comparison of the grey model before and after optimization and the transverse comparison of different prediction algorithms are carried out through simulation experiments.(3)Based on the load prediction results,power supply and network frame planning were carried out for a county in south China to improve power supply capacity.Aiming at the problems of insufficient power supply capacity,low reliability of power grid structure and high aging rate of existing equipment of a county power grid,the development planning of a county power grid was carried out based on the planning objectives and technical principles and the time sequence of power grid construction.It includes substation layout and capacity configuration of each voltage level,substation capacity balance,and network frame planning scheme of each voltage level.(4)Perform electrical calculation and analysis on the planning network.The development includes the calculation of power flow and short-circuit current under the operation mode of summer and winter of a county power grid,and the analysis of equipment power limits and power grid voltage limits;The reliability of different types of power supply areas is calculated and analyzed,and the power grid scheme is analyzed and verified.