Research On Medium And Long Term Power Load Forecasting Method Considering DSM And Intelligent Power Use

Accurate medium and long-term load forecasting is very important for regional economic and social development and power grid planning.With the rapid development of society and the people’s expectation of good life,the demand side management(DSM)work is promoted deeply,and the popularity rate of the intelligent power use is increasing,which brings challenges to the medium and long term load forecasting.In the context of extensive implementation of the demand side management and rapid development of the intelligent power use,the user’s own behavior is highly uncertain.In addition,the behavior patterns of different categories of users are different,and the impact on power load needs to be considered respectively.How to account for the impact of the demand side management and the intelligent power use is a problem to be solved urgently.In this paper,the medium and long-term load forecasting methods considering demand side management and intelligent power consumption are deeply studied.Firstly,the effect of the demand side management and the intelligent power use on load is modeled and analyzed,and then a medium and long term load forecasting model based on prospect-grey theory is established.Based on the above research,a medium and long term load forecasting method is proposed.This method achieves the prediction of the future maximum load and the typical daily load curve considering the demand side management and the intelligent power use.The main tasks include:(1)This paper summarizes the commonly used measures of the demand side management,and selects three main kinds of the demand side management means—tou power price,peak electricity price and interruptible load,modeling and analyzing the impact on the load.(2)Three means of the intelligent power use,such as electric vehicle,intelligent air conditioning and photovoltaic power.The probability distribution model is used to characterize the uncertainty of user behavior,and the impact of the load is modeled and simulated.(3)The medium and long term load forecasting system is Introduced.According to the prospect theory and grey prediction theory,a medium and long term load forecasting model based on the prospect-grey theory is set up to predict the maximum load in the future.And the accuracy of the model is verified by programming.Combined with the maximum load predicted,artificial neural network is applied topredict the typical daily load curve in the future.(4)A medium and long-term load forecasting method considering the demand side management and the intelligent power use is proposed,to program and simulate the typical daily load curve under the condition of the intelligent power use in the future.Considering the effect of the demand side management measures,the future typical daily load curves are forecasted and the change of the load is analyzed.