Research On Market Risk Assessment Of Dairy Farms In Heilongjiang Province

As an important province in the country's dairy industry,Heilongjiang Province had the unique advantage of developing the dairy industry.There were many dairy farms(households)in Heilongjiang Province.Farms of different sizes were flooded in the industry and were the foundation of dairy farming.Market risk was the most complex and variable type of risk that dairy farms faced.Changes in economic factors such as prices often lead to unstable and even lossy returns to dairy farms.Therefore,market risk assessment for dairy farms in Heilongjiang Province was necessary.And it was necessary to identify factors that had a significant impact on market risk,so as to provide better suggestions for preventing and controlling market risks and stabilizing the income of dairy farms.Firstly,based on the definition of the market risk of dairy farms,market risk assessment index system for dairy farms in Heilongjiang Province was built according to information asymmetry theory,supply and demand theory,transaction cost theory and actual situation.Next,the questionnaire was designed by assessment index system.After field research,statistics and analysis on the data was made.Once again,index weights were calculated by analytic hierarchy process.Market risk was assessed by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.And the main factors affecting market risk were identified.Finally,based on the assessment results,the measures to prevent and control market risk were put forward.In this paper,through a sample survey of 93 dairy farms in the main dairy cattle breeding areas in Heilongjiang Province,the risk of matching and contract between dairy farms and suppliers of production factors and dairy enterprises,raw milk price risk,feed and raw milk production risk and policy risk were contained in assessment index system.Through market risk assessment of dairy farms in Heilongjiang Province,market risk of dairy farms in Heilongjiang Province was at medium risk level.The risk impacts of market risk from the largest to the smallest of the five risk factors were policy risk,price risk,production risk,contract risk,and pairing risk.The main influencing factors of market risk were the selling price of raw milk,the degree of perfection of insurance products,the amount of subsidies for breeding,the output of raw milk,the compliance rate of dairy enterprises,and the degree of market monopolization.Finally,according to the assessment results,measures were proposed for strict breeding and management,decentralizing market risk,strengthening policy support,strengthening protection of market risks,strengthening the management of raw milk prices,and establishing a reasonable interest linkage mechanism for raw milk transactions.