Temporal And Spatial Variation Characteristics And Influencing Factors Of Rice Blast Epidemic In China

Rice blast is one of the most serious diseases of rice,which belongs to the world rice disease.There are different degrees of occurrence every year,ill area generally reduced by 10%-20%,serious area will reduced by 40%-50%,the local field are not collected.Rice blast is one of the important limiting factors in rice production activities,which causes huge economic losses to rice production every year.The occurrence and epidemic of rice blast will not only reduces the yield of rice,but also affects the quality of rice.The main performance in worse quality,worse appearance and shorter shelf life of rice.How to prevent and control rice diseases scientifically and effectively,control the occurrence and epidemic of diseases,and improve the quality and yield of rice production has become a problem that plant protection must face.In this paper,rice blast is the main object of study,which analyzes the characteristics of the temporal and spatial variation of the epidemic of rice blast.Based on the annual data of rice blast intensity in 2001-2015 provinces of 28 provinces in China,the spatial correlation of rice blast is analyzed,the spatial econometric model is constructed to explore the causes of the temporal and spatial variation of rice blast epidemic.This study will help us to understand the spatio-temporal information of rice blast comprehensively and provide a theoretical basis for effective control measures,predicting and controlling of rice blast.The spatial correlation of rice blast epidemic is determined by Moran 'I test.By constructing the spatial Durbin panel model,the influence factors of the temporal and spatial variation of rice blast epidemic are analyzed.It finds that the number of pathogenic bacteria,the intensity of chemical control and the concentration of rice production are affected significantly,and the following suggestions are put forward.In the process of prevention and control of rice blast,the symptoms and causes of the disease should be explored in depth.From the selection of rice varieties,the elimination of pathogen infection sources,the management of plant cultivation and the selection of pesticides,etc.to ensure the effective prevention and control measures of rice blast,on the basis of reducing the disease infection of rice,the production will be improved.