A Study On The Trade Potential Of Sino-Russian Forest Products

With the rapid development of China’s economy,the demand for forest products such as construction and furniture has become increasingly strong.Russia is rich in forest resources and has strong export demand.Therefore,in this context,trade in forest products between China and Russia has developed rapidly.However,the complex domestic and international situation has brought many challenges to the trade of forest products between two countries.The dominant control over the WTO by major powers has made the interests of China and Russia continues to shrink under the WTO framework.What’s more ? In order to speed up the development of the forest product industry,in recent years,the Russian government has increased tariffs on primary products,which has hindered the development of trade between two countries.At the same time,our country has entered the economic model of new normal and the economic growth has slowed down.Therefore,in the new situation,the development of trade in forest products between two countries needs to be repositioned.This article uses the method of comparative statistical analysis to analyze the trade of forest products of the two countries from the perspective of structure and scale of trade.Based on the analysis of relevant trade index,the article also estimates the revealed comparative advantage and complementarity of the forest products trade between two countries.Secondly,we selected the data concerning the import and export trade between 2002 and 2016 to establish a gravitational model for regression analysis.Thus,the influencing factors that has affected bilateral trade between two country will be derived,sequentially,this paper measures the trade potential of forest products in both countries.The results show that China and Russia have high complementarity in trade.The trade volume of forest product between the two countries is proportional to product of GDP、value added output of forest share of Russian GDP、dependency on foreign trade of Russia;is inversely proportional to the difference of GDP per capita,exchange rate of RMB against ruble.According to the model,the article evaluates the trade potential of forest products between twocountries,which indicates that trade in forest products still has huge potential for development.Finally,based on the analysis results of the previous article,this paper takes the “One Belt and One Road” as an opportunity to propose relevant policies from the perspectives of the government and the enterprises.Under the background of“One Belt and One Road”,The government should play a leading role in improving the trade environment;venture capital funds should be established to encourage domestic enterprises to invest in Russia;Strengthen understanding of trade barriers,endeavor to eliminate export obstacles;lay emphasis on technological innovation and brand building;promote the sound development of trade between China and Russia.