Region Division And Fluctuation Causes Analysis Of Hogs Price In China

In China,since the hog industry is dominated in the entire animal husbandry industry,the large fluctuation of hog price not only affects the daily life of urban and rural residents in China,but also brings risk to the production and operation of hog farmers.In addition,due to the vast territory of China,the hog price in different provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions are affected by local hog farming resources,feed cost,hog epidemic,household consumption level,race habit,traffic condition and so on.So the level and fluctuation of hog price in different provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions are also different.In order to do deeper research on the hog market in China,this paper aims to divide the hog market in China according to the time series data of monthly hog price in all provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions in China.Secondly,this paper analyzes the level and fluctuation of hog price in each region after the division,and then analyzes the causes of fluctuation.Finally,this paper puts forward to targeted countermeasures and suggestions to stabilize the hog market in China.The main works of this study are as follows:Firstly,this paper proposes a fuzzy interval number-based Kmeans(FINKmeans)algorithm,which is compared with the traditional Kmeans and FCM algorithms in the four UCI datasets and two simulation datasets with evaluation indicators of the purity,loss cost and contour coefficient.The experimental results show that the FINKmeans algorithm has better clustering performance than the traditional Kmeans and FCM algorithms.And then,the FINKmeans algorithm is used to divide the hog market in China into three regions: low,median and high according to the time series data of monthly hog price.Secondly,this paper uses the fusion of velocity method,X-12 seasonal adjustment method,trend decomposition method and rate of variation to analyze the fluctuation of the hog price in typical areas of each region after the region division and the overall hog price in China.Results find out that the fluctuation of hog price in low,median,high region showed four complete cycles and one unfinished cycle,that the basically consistent length of four complete cycles in the three regions are 18-19 months,38-39 months,45-47 months,58-59 months respectively,that all the fluctuation amplitude in the four complete cycles shows strong amplitude,that the fluctuation height showed high peak,and that the fluctuation depth showed classical fluctuation.On the whole,the average amplitude in the three regions shows strong amplitude,which is 63.6%,61.2%,and60.2% respectively.In all of them,the fluctuation amplitude of hog price in the low region is the maximum,followed by the median region,and the fluctuation amplitude of hog price in the highregion is the minimum,that is,the stability of the hog price in the high region is relatively better.And then this paper analyzes and summarizes the causes of fluctuation in each region.At lase,this paper gives targeted countermeasures and suggestions.Finally,due to the outbreak of the serious African Swine Fever(ASF)epidemic in China since August 2018,ASF has caused a severe impact on the hog market in China.Therefore,this paper uses the FINKmeans algorithm to divide the hog market in China under the influence of ASF again,and analyzes the fluctuation of hog price in the typical region by velocity method in each region after the region division,and then summarizes the impact of ASF on the hog market in China and the causes of ASF infection.At last this paper puts forward to countermeasures and suggestions.The FINKmeans algorithm proposed in this paper can be applied to the region division of other fields,such as the region division of grain yield/planting area in China,the region division of vegetable market in China,the region division of beef market in China,the region division of accumulated temperature in China,the region division of crop irrigation areas in China etc..In addition,the fusion of fluctuation measurement method and rate of variation is used to do research on the fluctuation law of price time series,which provides a new idea for time series fluctuation research.It is hoped that it can be applied to fluctuation research of the other time series,and discuss fluctuation cycle,fluctuation amplitude etc.or predict crest and trough occurrence time in the future.