Study On The Effect Of Large-scale Breeding On Price Fluctuation Of Hogs

As the saying goes,"Pig food security,world security",the volatility of pig prices directly affects the standard of living of residents and the income level of breeders.Sharp fluctuations can even hamper the development of the whole pig sector and chain,while causing price volatility of other related products and disturbing the stability of the whole price level.However,in recent years,hit by factors such as environmental regulation policy,African swine fever,inter-regional embargo policy and international agricultural prices,pig prices have fluctuated frequently and significantly in China,which has affected the proper functioning of the national economy.Large-scale breeding is the inevitable trend of pig production in China.Since 2007,China has enacted a series of measures to encourage large-scale pig farming,the level of pig farming in China continues to rise.In October 2020,the large-scale breeding rate reached 53%.In theory,large-scale and specialized breeding methods can promote the transformation and improvement of the pig industry in China,optimize the layout of the industry,and improve the risk-resisting ability of the pig industry,which can alleviate the pig price fluctuation range to some extent,which is conductive of the sustainable development of the pig industry.Based on data from national and international studies,we selected panel data from2007 to 2020 in 30 provinces of China(excluding Tibet)to explore in depth the effect of scale farming on pork price volatility.First,using the HP filtering method and the moran index,we measure the degree of pig price volatility and the degree of aggregation of pig-scale farms in China and analyze the characteristics of pig price volatility and the level of development of livestock farming on a scale;Second,empirical tests were carried out by constructing fixed effects models,spatial spillover models and threshold effects models;Finally,the moderating effect of large-scale farming on hog price volatility is examined by disaggregating farming regions and size levels.The main conclusions of this study are as follows:(1)pork prices are characterized by obvious cyclical and seasonal fluctuations,with the period of fluctuation tending to lengthen,while the seasonal characteristics gradually decrease;Pig farming continues to increase,but regional development is uneven;(2)the increase in the level of large-scale pig farming has a deterrent effect on pork price volatility;but there is an obvious threshold effect,with the moderating effect of large-scale pig farming being significantly reduced when the swine fever index exceeds the threshold;(3)there is a clear positive spatial correlation in pig price volatility and the level of large-scale pig husbandry in China,among them,the scale of pig breeding level of the spatial aggregation performance is more stable,pig price volatility of the spatial correlation in each year fluctuations;because of the cross-regional transportation of hog products and the demonstration of large-scale breeding,there is a significant spatial spillover effect of large-scale breeding on pig price fluctuation;(4)in the central,eastern and western regions,the influence of large-scale breeding on pig prices is more pronounced in the central and western regions;Among large,medium and small farms,medium-sized farms have the most moderating effect on pig price fluctuations and are the most resilient to the shocks of the epizootic.Based on the above analysis,read my practice of the following recommendations:first,the advantages of breeding pig economies of scale,promote our development towards the production modest-sized information region pigs and increase their level of technical-scientific development as well as the introduction of skills,etc.,to improve the resilience of pig farming enterprises to cushion the significant bacterial shocks of the pig industry;Second,actively implement the cold chain mode of transportation,accelerate the flow of pig products across areas,and fully play the spatial effects of scale breeding suppression pig price volatility;Third,integrate the pig production chain and establish an integrated and modern pig production system to effectively avoid operational risks.