Study On The Fluctuation Of The Pig Price In Hebei Province And Its Countermeasures

China is a country with a large population,influenced by the eating habits of the Chinese.China is the largest producer and consumer of pork in the world.The three indexes of pig's slaughter,storage and pork production are the first in the world.Hebei province is a big animal husbandry province in China.The development plan of the national pig production(2016-2020)points out that Hebei province is the key development zone of pig breeding.During the period of 13 th Five-Year,the pig industry should carry out the concept of green development.The target of "raising quality,increasing efficiency,supplying stable supply,ensuring safety and promoting ecology" is the goal to optimize the breeding area layout and promote standardized scale breeding.To build modern pig breeding industry,promote comprehensive utilization of culture waste,strengthen slaughter supervision and disease prevention and control,establish and improve the quality safety traceability system of pork products,accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the pig breeding industry,and strengthen production guidance,stabilize the price of pig,prevent the price from falling,and promote the sustainable health of the pig production.Development ? In 2018,the central No.1 document also stressed that agricultural and rural farmers are the fundamental problems related to the national economy and the people's livelihood.The revitalization of rural areas is the first one to flourish industry.With the implementation of Beijing Tianjin Hebei synergy and the implementation of a thousand year plan in Xiong an New Area,the sustainable development of pig green in Hebei province is the most important,but the fluctuation of pork price has seriously affected the pig production in recent years.The chain of industry has developed steadily.After defining the concept of the pig price risk,this paper analyzes the current situation of Hebei pig development in combination with the theory of economic fluctuation and the theory of market intervention,and recognise the status of the pig production in Hebei and the future development trend in the whole country.Through the data inquiry and the actual investigation,using the HP filtering analysis method,the 2007-2017 year statistical data are selected and the price of slaughtered pig is analyzed and the cyclical fluctuation of the pig price in one year is approximately two peaks.From the beginning of November,the price of pig began to rise and reached its peak in January,and then began tofall;in general,the price of pig in 3-4 months fell to the bottom of the valley.Another peak occurred at 7,8 and 9 in the three months,followed by a fall in prices.On the basis of the research results at home and abroad,combined with the characteristics and laws of the price fluctuation of Hebei pig,the long-term,short-term and dynamic analysis of the factors affecting the fluctuation of the pig price are systematically and systematically analyzed,and the macro factors that cause the price fluctuation include supply factors,demand factors and other factors.10 microscopic indexes are selected to compare the factors that affect the production price of Hebei pig,which is the basis for avoiding the price of pig production in Hebei province.Through the analysis of the characteristics and laws of the price fluctuation,this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to avoid the risk of the fluctuation of the pig's price: to control the cost,to improve the comprehensive benefit of the pig breeding,to build the high quality and value-added industrial chain,to improve the market competitiveness of the pig,to improve the epidemic disease prevention and control laboratory,and to improve the prevention and control of the epidemic disease.Capacity;enhance policy support to protect farmers' interests.For risks that can be evaded,avoid risks that can not be evaded as far as possible,and divert risks as far as possible and minimize losses caused by risks.The farmers should reasonably avoid the risk according to the characteristics of the fluctuation of the pig's price,and they should not blindly enter the market.The consumers should also have certain psychological expectations and rationally look at the fluctuation of the price of the pig.The innovation point of this paper is to use the HP filtering analysis method to compare the price fluctuation of the pig to the live pig for 2007-2017 years as the pig price,and to compare the fluctuation of pig price in the whole country and Hebei province from two aspects of the year-on-year growth rate of the annual pig price and the relative fluctuation range of the monthly pig price in each year.Price changes revolve around the magnitude of the mean fluctuation.The two is to use the grey relational degree model to obtain the factors that affect the fluctuation of the pig production price,and analyze the promotion effect of the pig production price in Hebei Province on the pig production.