Analysis Of Temporal And Spatial Pattern Evolution Of Wheat Production In Jiangsu Province And Its Influencing Factors

With a large population in the world,food security in China should be taken seriously at any time.Jiangsu Province is a typical developed coastal area in China.However,since the late 1990s,with the continuous advancement of industrialization and urbanization,the non-agricultural transformation of the rural labor force,the grain production of the whole province has been challenged.As the second largest grain crop in Jiangsu Province,the total production and sown area of wheat rank in the forefront compared with the one in the other provinces.The wheat production plays an important role in grain production in Jiangsu Province.The sustainable development of wheat production in Jiangsu Province is of great significance to protecting national food security and increasing farmers' income.Based on the wheat production data from 1997 to 2016 in Jiangsu Province,the following researches were done.Temporal and spatial pattern evolution of wheat production in Jiangsu Province was studied by using GIS spatial analysis,spatial autocorrelation analysis and barycenter transfer model.Based on factor decomposition method,the contribution rate of wheat yield in Jiangsu Province was analyzed.Eleven indices were selected from the aspects of climate disaster,agricultural science andtechnology,agricultural inputs,agricultural policy and market,etc.,to analyze factors influencing the change of wheat yield by the methods of correlation analysis,ridge regression model and gray correlation analysis.Based on the comparative advantage index,the regulation of wheat production in Jiangsu Province was analyzed.The results showed that:(1)From 1997 to 2016,according to the change of total production,wheat production in Jiangsu Province experienced three stages:rapid decline period(1997-2003),rapid recovery period(2004-2007)and stable growth period(2008-2016).(2)The sown area and total production of wheat decrease in South Jiangsu and increase in North Jiangsu.While the total production of wheat in South Jiangsu was greatly reduced,the total production of wheat in Jiangsu Province did not decline,which was mainly due to the development of wheat production in North and Central Jiangsu.The main reason for the evolution of wheat production pattern in Jiangsu Province was the change of sown area of wheat in different regions.The spatial distribution of wheat yield in Jiangsu Province had significant positive correlation.Local autocorrelation was dominated by high-high cluster area and low-low cluster area.Low-high cluster area was less distributed,and there was no high-low cluster area.In recent 20 years,Donghai County,Shuyang County and Lianshui County had been the high-high agglomeration area and low-low agglomeration area of wheat production in Jiangsu Province.Since 1997,wheat production center of gravity in Jiangsu Province had been in the northwest of the geometric center of Jiangsu Province.Within 20 years,the wheat production center of gravity in Jiangsu Province showed a trend of moving northward by 22.22km,indicating that the wheat production of North Jiangsu Provimce played a leading role in which of the whole province.(3)From 1997 to 2003,the total production of wheat in Jiangsu Province decreased mainly due to the decrease of sown area.From 2004 to 2007,the total production of wheat increased in Jiangsu Province,mainly due to the increase of sown area.From 2008 to 2015,the total production of wheat in Jiangsu Province increased,mainly due to the increase of unit yield.From 1997 to 2016,the relevant indices affecting the change of wheat production in Jiangsu Province were ranked as follows:effective irrigated area,amount of fertilizer application,amount of pesticide application,total mechanical power,the proportion of agricultural expenditure in fiscal expenditure,the price,the proportion of agricultural labor force in rural labor force,the cost and the proportion of cash crops in crops.Science,technology and input of agriculture indices had the largest correlation with the change of wheat yield,while the market and agricultural policy had a smaller correlation with it.(4)From 2007 to 2016,compared with other 10 major wheat producing provinces of China,the total production,sown area and unit yield of wheat production in Jiangsu ranked the fifth or sixth,wheat production in Jiangsu Province possessed aggregated comparative advantage and scale comparative advantage,but lacked efficiency comparative advantage.From 1997 to 2016,the scale comparative advantage index of wheat production in Jiangsu Province had a rising trend,and the scale comparative advantage in north areas were stronger than that in south areas.There was no efficiency comparative advantage in South Jiangsu Province.The aggregated comparative advantage developed from the pattern of high-value center in Xuzhou City in 1997 to the pattern of non-obvious high-value center in 2007 and 2016,indicating that the "polarization effect"of wheat aggregated advantage was decreasing.(5)Based on the results,the following suggestions were put forward to ensure the sustainable development of wheat production in Jiangsu Province.Firstly,the sown area of wheat in North and Central Jiangsu should be stable,the variety layout should be optimized.Secondly,scientific and technological innovation in wheat production should be applied,green development for wheat production should be promoted.Thirdly,the benefits of wheat production should be improved to protect farmers' enthusiasm for growing wheat.