Design Of Monitoring Index System For Forestry Industry In China

Cyclical fluctuations is the objective law,what is bound to occur in the process of economic development,the forestry economy as part of the national economy,must follow the economic laws.However,the large cyclical fluctuations not only affect the normal operation of the forestry economy,but also may affect the development of the national economy,resulting in aggravating the growing social demand contradiction.So the effective economic regulation can reduce the economic cycle fluctuations,and reduce the negative impact to a minimum,which is the government's important objective of economic regulation and control The volatility caused by the economic cycle can not be eliminated,but there are some ways to predict the possibility of fluctuations in the development of the forestry economy.This paper attempts to monitor the whole process of forestry industry operation by establishing the monitoring index system of forestry industry operation.Firstly,In-depth analysed the process of forestry industry operation,and summarized the statistical index of current forestry industry operation,initially established the monitoring index system of forestry industry operation.Then,used the correlation coefficient method and principal component analysis method to filter the initial construction index by R software,got the annual monitoring index system of China's forestry industry operation.Because the development of forestry economy rely on forest-based resources,the growth of trees need a long cycle and changes small in the short term,so the quarterly monitoring index system is obtained by removing some indicators what change small in the short period of time from the annual monitoring index system,it is meets the principle of simple and reduce costs.In addition,the paper based on the annual monitoring index system and the prosperity index theory,compiled the prosperity index of China's forestry industry based on the data from 2000 to 2015,and made a preliminary dynamic description of the forestry industry in China,came to a conclusion that China's forestry economic spread index is showing fluctuating downward trend.Based on this,the article established the collection system of monitoring of forestry industry operation,and introduces the specific data collection methods of different links and different indexes.Finally,the author summarized the conclusions of this paper,and put forward the innovation and the shortcomings of this paper.