Spatial Distribution Change And Evolution Prediction Of Forest Land Resources In Beijing In Recent Ten Years

The spatial distribution of forest land resources plays an important role in environmental protection,maintenance of ecological balance,improvement of human living environment and organization of greenhouse effect.Beijing is the capital of China.With the rapid development of the city,the change of natural resources in the city has received extensive attention.In recent years,the spatial pattern of forest land resources in this area has changed rapidly,and the area of forest land has changed rapidly.Alteration and transformation of types will bring about changes in the ecological environment.It is very necessary and urgent to study further changes in forest resources in this area.Based on the data of spatial distribution of forest land resources in Beijing Natural Resources Database in 2007,2012 and 2016,and combined with 3S technology,this paper discusses the spatial distribution changes of forest land resources in Beijing in the past ten years,and explores the causes of the changes by combining with Autologistic logistic logistic regression analysis.Based on the improved CLUE-S model,the natural evolution scenarios,forest land protection scenarios and ecological protection scenarios are discussed.Forecast the evolution of forest land resources in three scenarios.According to the national forest land classification standard,it is divided into four categories: arbor forest land,shrub forest land,sparse forest land and other forest land.The BJ2 satellite image in 2016 is vectorized by visual interpretation method,and the accuracy is analyzed.After artificial compilation,and combined with the data published by Beijing Forestry Bureau in 2007 and 2012,the three-stage data are analyzed.Finally,the forest land resource space in Beijing is obtained.Inter-distribution and change.The present situation of forest land resources in Beijing shows that the fragmentation degree of forest patches is relatively large,the human disturbance activities are obvious,and the differences of forest land are obvious in different regions.In the past ten years,the area of forest land has been increasingcontinuously,and the changes of forest land types are different.Among them,shrubbery land has decreased significantly,sparse forest land has increased,arbor forest area and other forest land area have increased considerably,and the forest cover rate and forest cover rate have increased.The average forest area per capita in the study area is declining.The CLUE-S model was improved by using Autologistic analysis instead of the traditional binary method.The prediction accuracy of the CLUE-S model was 92.01%,and the Kappa index was 0.897,which could better predict the evolution of forest land resources.It is predicted that forest land resources will decrease by 1633.77 square kilometers in the natural evolution scenario in the next ten years,while in the ecological protection scenario,the loss of forest land resources will be smaller and increase by 190.13 square kilometers,with a slight decrease in the suburbs of cities,while in the northern and western mountainous areas,the increase of forest land resources will be obvious;in the forest land protection scenario,the forest land resources will increase by 776.53 square kilometers.