Stand Diameter Structure Analysis Of Uneven-aged Theropencedrymion And Study On Bayesian Model

In this thesis,a software named PEP was applied through adapting its parameters for Chinese forest in order to analyze and predict the stand structure using eight observed data from 26 sample plots in Jingouling Forest Farm of Wangqing Forestry Bure,Jilin Province.It was used to make analysis of the stand characteristics and give some suggestions on managing the stand.Based on this,the optimization problem of individual tree's diameter growth model and transition matrix model was studied further.Transition matrix model and combined model(using BMA method)were established to predict the stand diameter class distribution and DBH increment of three main conifers in 5 years respectively.The results shows that the predicted values of fixed parameter transition matrix model tend to be higher than the true value.As a result,the prediction of Bayesian model is relatively more accurate than that of fixed parameter model.The combined model which was built by using BMA method is more accurate than individual model in predicting DBH increment of Picea koraiensis.A new way was presented to select individual model at the same time.