| In this experiment,the population of wheat powdery mildew in China was used as the target,and the interaction model of wheat powdery mildew with different temperature sensitivity was established.Combined with the international coupling model,CMIP3(B1,A1B and A2)and CMIP5(RCP2.6,The temperature data of 6 different climate emission scenarios in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)predicted the trend of sensitivity of pathogens in six winter wheat powdery mildew epidemic areas under different scenarios in 2050s and 2080s.The proportions of high temperature,medium and low temperature sensitive strains in different endemic areas were obtained.Based on this,the summer threshold of pathogens in different wheat powdery mildew epidemic areas was calculated,and geographic information software(ArcGIS)and geostatistics were used.Learning,the future wheat powdery mildew area is predicted.Based on the interaction model between different susceptible strains of wheat powdery mildew and climate models of CMIP3 and CMIP5,the proportion of temperature-sensitive strains in six different scenarios of CMIP3 and CMIP5 in different epidemic areas of powdery mildew was predicted.The results showed that in the CMIP3 mode 2050s period B1 scenario,South China,Huanghuai,southwest winter wheat powdery mild disease epidemic area,A1B scenario mode north,South China,Huanghuai,southwest winter wheat powdery mild disease epidemic area,A2 scenario mode north,The proportion of low temperature sensitive strains in the endemic areas of winter wheat powdery mildew in South China,Huanghuai and Southwest China increased.In the B1 scenario,the winter wheat powdery mildew area in thenorth,northwest,middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,the northwestern part of the A1B scenario,and the winter wheat powdery mildew in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River In the epidemic area,the A2 scenario,the proportion of low-sensitivity strains in winter wheat powdery mildew in the northwest and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River showed a downward trend;in the B80 scenario of 2080s,the southern China,Huanghuai,southwest winter wheat powdery mildew epidemic area,and the northern part of the A1B scenario,South China,Huanghuai,Northwest,Southwest,Yangtze River,winter wheat white powder In the epidemic area,the A2 scenario,the proportion of low-sensitivity strains of winter wheat powdery mildew in the north,middle,southwest,and middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is on the rise,and the winter wheat white powder in the north,northwest,and middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in the B1 scenario.The proportion of low temperature sensitive strains in the endemic areas showed a downward trend.CMIP5 mode 2050s period RCP2.6 mode China South,Huanghuai,Yangtze River middle and lower reaches winter wheat powdery mildew epidemic area,RCP4.5 mode north,South China,Huanghuai,Yangtze River middle and lower reaches,winter wheat powdery mildew epidemic area,RCP8.5 mode The proportion of low temperature sensitive strains in winter wheat powdery mildew in the north,south China,Huanghuai,southwest and middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River increased.In the RCP2.6 mode,the northern,northwest and southwest winter wheat powdery mildew epidemic areas,RCP4.5 mode northwest,The proportion of low temperature sensitive strains in the winter wheat powdery mildew epidemic area and the RCP8.5 model in the northwestern winter wheat powdery mildew region showed a downward trend;the winter wheat powdery mildew epidemic areas in the middle and lower reaches of South China,Huanghuai and the Yangtze River under the RCP2.6 model in the 2080s period,The ratio of temperature-sensitive strains of winter wheat powdery mildew in the north,south,south,middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in the RCP4.5 mode,the north,south,south,and southwest of the Yangtze River in the RCP4.5 mode Uptrend,the prevalence of winter wheat powdery mildew in the north,northwest and southwest winter wheat,and the northwestern and southwest winter wheat powdery mildew epidemic in RCP4.5 mode The proportion of low-temperature-sensitive strain endemic areas in the northwest and powdery mildew in winter wheat under RCP8.5 mode decline.In the CMIP3 model,although there are some differences in the proportion of different sensitive strains in different wheat powdery mildew epidemic areas,in general,in China's winter wheat powdery mildew epidemic area,the temperature in most areas is low with the increase of climate warming temperature.The proportion of sensitive pathogens is on the rise.It indicated that the low-sensitivity strains were more competitive than the other two sensitive strains with increasing temperature.The proportion of the low-sensitivity pathogen population in the CMIP5 mode is basically the same as the CMIP3 mode.The proportion of low-sensitivity pathogens in the high-emission scenario of the model is basically higher than that of medium-and low-emissions,indicating that climate warming will promote the increase in the proportion of low-sensitivity pathogens.Comparing the changes of the ratio of different sensitive strains in different scenarios of CMIP3 and CMIP5,it can be seen that the characteristics of CMIP5 are not strong CMIP3,and the trend of CMIP5 rising is more gradual.Based on the prediction of the temperature sensitivity ratio of the pathogen population in different climatic scenarios of different wheat powdery mildew epidemic areas,The temperature termination thresholds of the pathogen populations in different winter wheat powdery mildew epidemic areas in different scenarios of CMIP3 and CMIP5 were obtained by calculation.The temperature termination threshold of different wheat powdery mildew endemic areas was used as the summer threshold of the disease.The high-resolution map of China and the map of the endemic area of wheat powdery mildew were used as the base map,and the elevation map was used to change the summer wheat range of wheat powdery mildew in China.The forecast.The results show that with the warming of the climate,the summery area of wheat powdery mildew will gradually become smaller,but the degree of change in different summer probability areas will be different.At present,the summery range of wheat powdery mildew in China is mainly concentrated in the west,central and northern parts of Yunnan,central and southern Sichuan,western Guizhou,central and southern Gansu,central and southern Shaanxi,southeastern Ningxia,central Shanxi,southwestern Hebei,Qinghai,Xinjiang.Some areas of wheat powdery mildew in Tibet and other places.On this basis,combined with the size of the pixel unit in the ArcGIS software fishing net data,the area of the summery probability of different wheat powdery mildew epidemic areas in different scenarios in CMIP3 mode and CMIP5 mode was predicted.The prediction results show that the higher the scenario,the higher the greenhouse gas emissions,the greater the temperature increase,and the later the time period,the larger the area of the summer high probability area is reduced.In some areas,the oversummering extension will be concentrated in the endemic areas of winter wheat powdery mildew in South China,Huanghuai and Southwest China. |
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