Evaluation Of Cultivated Land Productive Potential In Jianghan Plain Considering Uncertainty Of Spatial Interpolation

The Jianghan Plain is one of the largest agricultural production areas in Hubei Province and has a pivotal position in national food security.Evaluating and digging up the production potential of cultivated land in the Jianghan Plain can not only give full play to regional resource advantages,but also enhance the country's ability to guarantee food security.Based on the agricultural status of the Jianghan Plain,this paper absorbs the previous research results,uses GIS spatial interpolation as technical support,analyzes the spatial distribution characteristics of cultivated land production potential factor data on the uncertainty of interpolation during the preprocessing process,and selects a relatively superior interpolation method;through the mechanism method(gradual revision of production potential model),taking into account natural ecological factors such as light,temperature,water,soil,etc.,according to the selected interpolation method,gradually "decay" calculation to obtain the cultivated land production potential of the Jianghan Plain;The obtained production potential was used as data to further carry out the research and evaluation of the grading statistics and zoning statistics in the Jianghan Plain,and finally revealed the spatial distribution characteristics of the production potential of the cultivated land in the Jianghan Plain from multiple angles.Through the research in this article,the following main conclusions are obtained:(1)The spatial distribution characteristics of the data have an impact on theselection of interpolation methods,and thus have an uncertain effect on the interpolation results.Since solar radiation data,frost-free period data and evaporation data have spatial autocorrelation,the spatial distribution is normal and the anisotropy is obvious,so ordinary Kriging is the better interpolation method;while the spatial distribution of precipitation data does not meet the normal requirements,and the inverse distance weighting method has been used;similarly,different soil factor data have different interpolation methods according to their different spatial distribution characteristics.(2)The production potential of cultivated land in the cities and counties of theJianghan Plain is concentrated around 50,000 kg/hm2,the gap is not large,and the space is regularly decreasing from south to north,which shows a clear correlation with the distribution of temperature,precipitation and other natural resources.On the whole,the production potential of cultivated land in the Jianghan Plain is affected by the region's good radiation resources,sufficient sunshine,and abundant rain and heat conditions.(3)The spatial difference of cultivated land potential in the Jianghan Plain is small,and the digging space is large.The first-level potential cultivated land in the Jianghan Plain has the widest distribution and the largest area,followed by the second-level potential cultivated land.The two together account for about 87.23%of the total area of the Jianghan Plain.In addition,the productivity potential index of the cultivated land in cities and counties of the Jianghan Plain is above 79%,which also shows The Jianghan Plain is rich in light and heat resources,has long sunshine hours,and has a lot of space for arable land.