| The arable land is the fundamental resource for human survival and development. It is natural environment which developed from natural soil and is suitable for crop growth, development and mature. Facing our country, there are many exacerbated serious problems, such as less per capita arable land, poor quality of cultivated land, serious land degradation, a big shortage of cropland resources and gradual reduction of arable land trend and so on. In China, the future population is expected to grow at a rate of10million a year, in2030, is likely to reach1.6billion people. Improvement of living standards and the level of urbanization will continue to pull the food demand growth.By2030; grain demand will reach617million tons in China meanwhile grain output needs to increase by more than20%on this basis. However, more and more encroachment on cultivated land for urbanization and infrastructure construction that lead to large area of soil contamination extends and farmer farming food wishes continued decline. Therefore, the protection of cultivated land resources and food security is particularly critical to meet basic human survival and development demand. In particular now faced with such a complex problem of cultivated land, protection of cultivated land does not rest simply on the number, but also to the cultivated land quality management and environmental protection, and promotion. In order to achieve this transformation and propose a reasonable amount of arable land resources management and protection of grain production proposals. First, we should understand the regional arable land quantity and quality as well as the temporal evolution of grain production capacity and spatial differentiation characteristics. Second, respectively grasp farmland quantity, quality and food production capacity space-time evolution of the drive mechanism. Finally, we should analyze the process of spatio-temporal coupling mechanism of the quantity and quality of cultivated land and grain production capacity.This article selects Jianghan Plain as the study area. Jianghan Plain is located in south-central of Hubei Province. It is made by the Yangtze River and Hanjiang river perennial alluvial. Jianghan Plain is a typical Farmland-Lake Ecosystem which has more than300lakes in it. In this region, rivers are crisscrossed. Also, there are numerous lakes, fertile soil, abundant rainfall, adequate light and heat, excellent conditions for food production. Jianghan Plain is not only one of the important agricultural production bases in China, but also the fastest of cultivated land occupied by construction. The main change in land-use types is arable land-lakes-construction conversion. It is typical that the characteristics of spatio-temporal coupling mechanism of regional grain production capacity and quality of cultivated land.This paper is divided into eight chapters:Chapter one is an introduction. This chapter clarifies research significance. Then make a review of related articles from at home and abroad based on inspecting definition and research of cultivated land quality, studying spatial changes of cultivated land quality and progress of spatio-temporal coupling relationship between changes of grain production capacity and quality of cultivated land.Chapter two is the research programs. In this chapter, the author makes a brief description of study objectives and research methods, and also proposes to solve the key issues, and establishes research techniques. The research based on a variety of methods such as cross-disciplinary background and quantitative geography,3S technology, mathematical statistics and computer technology to carry out in-depth research of the spatial variation response of the amount and quality of cultivated land and grain production capacity evolution in Jianghan Plain for30years.Chapter three is the establishment index system. This chapter mainly describes the definition on the connotation and construction of indicator system and measurement standards. The index system and measurement standards are selected based on research purpose and studies on regional characteristics to make a definition of the quality of cultivated land and grain productivity.Chapter four is the spatio-temporal evolution of the quantity of cultivated land in Jianghan Plain. This chapter analyses driving mechanism of cultivated land spatio-temporal evolution in Jianghan Plain. This chapter focuses on evolving two-pronged approach to timing variations and spatial pattern of cultivated land quantity. Following two main line:the Statistical Yearbook data and remote sensing study on the land utilization types, then, respectively makes an in-depth analysis of the cultivated land in Jianghan Plain including regional differences in per capita arable land, cultivated land use change in timing change, Atlas of land use, land-use transition matrices, flows into and out of cultivated land spatial distribution characteristics and evolution, as well as potential changes of cultivated land, agricultural land law of Center of gravity, farmland landscape pattern and the evolution of spatial pattern of cultivated land at county. Finally it makes careful study on spatio-temporal change of the driving mechanism of the quantity of cultivated land resource in Jianghan Plain. Studies have shown that both the amount of cultivated land and the amount of cultivated land per capita decline during1980-2010in Jianghan Plain, also the center gravity of cultivated land moves westwards. More frequent in1980and1990, the conversion of arable land-waters and farmland-woodland are shown. During1990-2000, Waters-farmland and construction land-farmland conversion is the main type of conversion. During2000to2010, the conversion of arable land and construction land is the dominant type of conversion. Gradually from1980to2010, county land dynamically active degrees from the western regions to the eastern region. The main characteristics of the stage arable landscape changes are the fragmentation of cultivated land polygons and the irregular shapes that show human activities intervention on the change of Cultivated Land continue to strengthen.Chapter five is the spatio-temporal evolution of the quality of cultivated land in Jianghan Plain. This chapter analyses quality spatio-temporal evolution and driving mechanism of cultivated land in Jianghan Plain. It primarily explores on main factors variation of affecting the quality of cultivated land in Jianghan Plain. And the author divided into arable farmland quality evaluation index system in accordance with the Regulations of Farmland Grading and "Dynamic monitoring of cultivated land quality in Central pilot". At last, spatio-temporal evolution and its driving mechanism of the quality of cultivated land has been studied deeply. Studies have shown:the two periods1980-1990and1990-2000, the quality of arable land enhance rapidly. From2000to2010, the quality farmland enhance slowly, even with the local quality recession. The superior quality farmland is concentrated to the east and south meanwhile the center gravity the inferior farmland slowly transfers to the west and north."High in the East and low in the west, south superior and north inferior" this spatial pattern of quality of arable land becomes more and more obvious.Chapter six is the spatio-temporal evolution of Grain production capacity in Jianghan Plain. This chapter analyzes the space-time evolution and driving mechanism of Jianghan Plain grain production capacity. First, it makes a preliminary analysis of the food reality production capacity, such as food production, grain yields, per capita food production, multiple cropping indexes, and food production concentration timing variations. Then it estimates of potential productivity levels of food in Jianghan Plain. By using gravity models, ESDA spatial exploratory data analysis of grain production and the method of factor analysis, author conducts a study on evolution of spatial pattern of grain production in Jianghan Plain. Finally, author makes exploratory studies on plant boundary changes based on Jianghan Plain region daily meteorological data. On the basis of the above study, author expands the analysis of main driving forces of the grain production capacity space-time evolution in Jianghan Plain. The results show that:the variation of Jianghan Plain food production presents as "low yield-high yield-increased yield-declined yield" the spatial agglomeration characteristics are shown significantly, the yield movement trajectory of the center of gravity trend is "Move to east, transfer to south." Grain yield and grain sown area yields spatial coordination does not exist; this is mainly due to the differences of the regional planting structure with multiple cropping index. Cropping index shows a trend as first high then low, but the overall increase. The highest point of the stage reached in1997. The multiple of counties (cities) are disturbed in the south and west area, except Yunmeng county and Yingcheng city. These cities general cropping index distributions have a good consistency with heat distribution. The capacity potential estimates show that the eastern and southern regions is the future major increase area; the grain bearing capacity change of spatial pattern presents trend as the "west superior than east" to "the west superior than east, the south superior than north" to "East-South-West-southern half point stronger, northeast corner of weak" evolution of the situation. Food bearing capacity of the center of gravity along the trajectory of the West-Southwest-Southern movement; the warming lead to planting area boundaries advancing to the north and west, as well as double-crop rice planting northern boundary advancing to northward.Chapter seven is the study on the spatio-temporal coupling relationship between food production capacity and quality of cultivated land in Jianghan Plain. With the support of SLM and SEM spatial econometric regression model and ESDA data, author studies the analysis methods to explore the farmland quality factor with food production, spatial correlation between sustainable grain production capacity and relevant economic factors. This chapter also constructs a fitting model of cultivated land and food production center and analyzes of the spatial distribution of sensitivity of cultivated land and food production. Meanwhile, author studies on the spatio-temporal evolution of agricultural labor force and change of cultivated land and grain yield. Finally, it makes a comprehensive analysis on impact of the change of cultivated land quantity and quality on grain production. Author from three areas:the sustainable use of cultivated land, agricultural policy and promotion, the region-body functional position to make recommendations of cultivated land protection. The empirical result shows that the improvement of effective thickness of soil layer and soil in Jianghan Plain significantly improve the yield, however, drainage conditions have little improve space. Excellence cultivated land is in east and the focus of the quality of cultivated land and food production center of gravity move to south, the focus of cultivated land moves to northwestwards. Reverse structural changes for the future regional grain production planted hides danger. The rising of grain output dependence on the amount of cultivated land more and more significant. The pattern of labor farming coupling type space evolution is the "recession-partial growth-growth", the pattern of labor-farming growth counties (cities) expands gradually, the distribution center of gravity transfers from the western to the eastern part.Chapter eight is the conclusions and innovations. In this chapter, the main conclusions and the innovative points are summarized... |
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