Research On Temporal And Spatial Changes Of Cultivated Land Production Capacity And Carrying Capacity In Henan Province

The contradiction among population,cultivated land and grain is becoming increasingly prominent in China.It is particularly important to study the productive capacity and population carrying capacity of cultivated land in China.Henan Province,as an important member of China's major grain-producing areas and a large population province,has great significance in analyzing the situation of cultivated land utilization,estimating the potential of land production,revealing the prospects for increasing grain production and carrying capacity of cultivated land.The research on the carrying capacity of cultivated land in Henan Province is conducive to discussing the coordinated development of economy,resources and environment in the past decades,providing countermeasures for sustainable development in the future,and better playing the joint role of various elements.Firstly,the theory of cultivated land productivity and carrying capacity is sorted out and summarized,and the connotation of carrying capacity of cultivated land is defined.On this basis,the grain crop productivity potential of Henan Province and 18 cities is estimated.The temporal and spatial changes of carrying capacity of cultivated land in provinces and cities are analyzed by using the measuring model of land resources population carrying capacity and the index model of population carrying capacity.The driving factors of cultivated land carrying capacity were studied by linear regression analysis.At last,the grain yield and population of Henan province from 2018 to 2020 were predicted,and the cultivated land carrying capacity in the future was predicted and evaluated.The main conclusions drawn in this paper are as follows:1.The potential productivity of cultivated land in Henan Province is 108.48,and 45.7% of the potential is still undeveloped.The spatial distribution characteristics of cultivated land productivity potential in Henan Province show obvious zonal decreasing characteristics and three-dimensional distribution.In terms of time characteristics,climate warming and the improvement of scientific and technological level promote the continuous improvement of cultivated land production capacity in Henan Province.The proportion of cultivated land production capacity in cultivated land production potential has increased from 36.7% to 63.67% year by year.2.Under the current productivity level,the carrying population of cultivated land resources in Henan Province is 132.733 million,the carrying capacity index of cultivated land reaches 0.82,and the relationship between people and grain is in the state of grain surplus.In the next three years,if the input of agricultural production is basically stable,the surplus of grain will continue to be maintained.The suggestions of cultivated land protection should be put forward according to the relationship between the quality of agricultural labor force,the area of agricultural land and the carrying capacity of cultivated land.3.Through multiple linear regression analysis,it is concluded that the main factors affecting the change of cultivated land carrying capacity in Henan Province from 1994 to 2017 are the educational level of rural labor force,the proportion of labor force,the area of agricultural land and the natural climate and environment.