Study On The Spatial-temporal Evolution Of Cultivated Land Pressure And Its Driving Factors In Central Plains Economic Region

In order to strictly observe the red line of cultivated land,make rational use of and protect cultivated land resources,and ensure national food security.Promote the Central Plains Economic Region to achieve leapfrog development,in support of the rise of the central region and serve the overall situation of the country play a greater role.Based on the multiple perspectives of social and economic factors,food production factors and factor input factors,12 indexes were selected to apply grey correlation analysis method to the influence On the basis of the research on the driving factors of cultivated land pressure change in Central Plains Economic Region,the spatial differentiation and coupling relationship between GDP and GDP of the representative indexes of social and economic factors in cultivated land pressure and dominant factors in Central Plains Economic Region are further studied by using geographical concentration and coupling index.Finally,based on grey GM(1,1)prediction model,the future trend of cultivated land pressure and related variables in Central Plains Economic Region 2019-2029 is predicted,and relevant countermeasures are put forward.The results show that the pressure index of cultivated land in the Central Plains Economic Region from 2007 to 2018 shows a periodic characteristic,which is generally in the trend of decreasing fluctuation,the degree of dispersion and spatial difference of cultivated land pressure in each prefecture-level city is increasing,the spatial distribution is uneven,and the trend of east-west differentiation is remarkable.The index of influence factors selected had influence on the change of cultivated land pressure,social and economic factors > factor input factors > food production factors,and the correlation degree was GDP>farmers' income > urbanization level > fertilizer input and irrigation level > agricultural machinery input and industrial structure > pesticide input > multiple cropping index > single grain yield > cultivated land quality and per capita cultivated land area.The influence of social and economic factors on cultivated land pressure is significant,which is the leadingfactor affecting the change of cultivated land pressure;the geographical connection between cultivated land pressure and economic development is relatively close,the spatial distribution is more consistent,and the coupling relationship is obvious;in the future,the Central Plains Economic Region as a whole has no pressure,and some cities have obvious pressure.