Spatial-temporal Differentiation And Driving Factors Of China’s Agricultural Inclusive Green Total Factor Productivity

Stable development of agriculture and food can ensure national stability and security.Agriculture is the basic industry of national economy.After the reform and opening up,agriculture has been very effective in promoting rural development and improving farmers’ lives.However,at the same time,we should also pay attention to the problems of environmental pollution and lack of inclusiveness in China’s agricultural development process,which are still very prominent and seriously restrict the high-quality development of agriculture.Based on the background of accelerating the construction of a new development pattern and promoting high-quality development,inclusive green growth in agriculture has become an inevitable choice for the coordinated development of economy,society and resource environment.Accordingly,this paper introduces the concept of inclusive green growth into the evaluation system of agricultural production efficiency and measures it scientifically,and further studies its spatial and temporal variation characteristics and driving factors,in order to take the pulse of the inclusive green growth of China’s agricultural economy and provide a new perspective for promoting the high-quality coordinated development of regional agriculture.This paper constructs a set of agricultural inclusive green TFP evaluation index system covering economic,social and natural aspects.This paper first measures agricultural inclusive green TFP in 31 provinces of China from 2003 to 2020 and starts from both temporal and spatial dimensions,using SBM-DDF model and global Malmquist productivity index.Secondly,the Standard deviation ellipse,Dagum Gini coefficient,Kernel density estimation based on three-dimensional perspective view and Markov chain analysis are used to portray the spatial and temporal divergence patterns of agricultural inclusive green TFP in China.Finally,in order to explore the relevant driving factors,a quadratic assignment procedure method is used to empirically investigate the causes of the spatial and temporal variation of the agricultural inclusive green TFP in China.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)China’s agricultural inclusive green TFP shows a lower growth rate,and technological progress is the main driver of growth.Among them,the growth of agricultural inclusive green TFP is relatively fast in the eastern region,while it is relatively slow in the central and western regions.(2)From the perspective of spatial divergence,the center of gravity of China’s agricultural inclusive green TFP growth is always located in the eastern region,and has a more obvious dispersion feature.At the same time,the overall variance of China’s agricultural inclusive green TFP shows a fluctuating upward trend,and the hyper-variance density contributes the most to its variance.From the perspective of time-series evolution,the polarization of China’s agricultural inclusive green TFP diminishes,and its mobility begins to gradually increase,and has a positive spillover effect after considering the inclusion of spatial lags.(3)The equalization of technological progress and technical efficiency changes has a significant positive effect on reducing the spatial and temporal variation of China’s agricultural inclusive green TFP,which is driven by agricultural infrastructure,economic development level,agricultural fiscal expenditure,industrialization level,disaster rate and urbanization level in decreasing order,but in different directions.This paper intends to make marginal contributions in the following three points:Firstly,based on the fact that agricultural modernization is the shortcoming of the "four synchronization",this paper proposes a research paradigm on agricultural economic performance under the factor constraints of "inclusiveness" and "greening",and empirically analyzes China’s agricultural inclusive green TFP.Secondly,this paper systematically examines the spatial and temporal variation characteristics and driving factors of China’s agricultural inclusive green TFP from the perspectives of its overall level,decomposition results,spatial differentiation phenomena,and dynamic evolutionary trends.Thirdly,Based on the three perspectives of strengthening agricultural technology innovation,promoting regional exchange and cooperation,and attaching importance to regional synergistic enhancement,this paper proposes countermeasures for the synergistic enhancement of inclusive and green TFP in Chinese agriculture.