Research On PPP Project Risk Management Of National Reserve Forest

Since 2015,PPP has become a more rational choice for the financing and construction of the National Reserve Forest.However,the application of PPP may accumulate a large number of risks,highlighting the importance of risk management research.According to the logic of "current situation carding-risk identification-risk analysing and measurement-risk sharing and management",this paper firstly introduces the background,and application model.Secondly,based on the classification of the main risks faced by the PPP project of National Reserve Forest,the main risks in each stage of the whole life cycle perspective of the project are analyzed.Then based the explanation structure model(ISM)model,this paper identified the risk stratification of the project,and as an example,this paper analyzed the default probability of Nanping National Reserve Forest project;The last part is risk sharing and management,which is carried out by putting forward risk sharing principle,constructing risk mechanism and refining risk management strategies of each subject.As a result of the risk identification and analysis,this paper shows that the credit risk and repayment risk are the surface risks,while the underlying factors are the design of the PPP project,and the construction cost is too high or the quality is insufficient.The monte carlo simulation results show that due to the setting of "repayment grace period" and "feasibility gap subsidy",risks is low and mainly concentrated in the early years of operation,which is consistent with the ISM analysis results.In the part of risk sharing and management,the principle of controllable risk,equal risk return and preventing risk spillover to local government debt are comprehensively considered,and the identified risks are shared and managed in a targeted way.At last,the risk management strategy of each participant is detailed,so as to provide reference for the risk management of PPP projects in National Reserve Forest.