| Global warming will reduce crop yield and seriously threaten global food security and sustainable development.The degradation and disappearance of habitats caused by climate change has transformed many creatures’original spatial life patterns.It is expected that some species will increase or decrease in geological distribution so as to cope with climate change.Accordingly,gaining in-depth knowledge of direct or indirect effects on species distribution under climate change is a top-priority issue in ecology.As one of three major beverages in the world,coffee ranks first in terms of production,consumption,and economic output.Yunnan Province is the largest base for Arabica Coffee export production and cultivation in China,accounting for more than 95%of the country’s planted production and cultivation area.The study on the impact of climate change on coffee planting areas could provide a reference for implementing long-term planting and development programs to alleviate the effects of climate change on the distribution of ecologically suitable Arabica Coffee areas.According to the geographical distribution data,climate,terrain and soil data of Arabica Coffee in Yunnan Province,AHP-GIS and Max Ent model was used to determine the most significant environmental factors affecting the ecological suitability and the ecological suitability distribution of Arabica Coffee in Yunnan Province under the current climate background.Combined with the climate data of 2021-2100 under different carbon emission scenarios SSPs126,SSPs370 and SSPs585 under BCC-CSM2-MR model in CMIP6,the grade of coffee ecological suitability planting area and the increase and decrease range of highly-suitable regions in different periods were simulated.The distribution transformation under the climate change scenario was determined by calculating the centroid and migration distance of the highly-suitable regions.The main conclusions drawn are as follows:(1)The model accuracies of Max Ent and AHP-GIS were 0.925 and 0.833 respectively,indicating that the two methods were reliable in the ecological suitability evaluation of Arabica Coffee.Max Ent predicted that the most and moderately suitable area accounted for 16.26%and22.59%,and AHP-GIS predicted that they accounted for 13.35%and 41.32%of the total area respectively.The most and moderately suitable areas were mainly concentrated in west,southeast,south and southwest Yunnan.(2)Seven key environmental factors influencing the distribution of ecologically suitable areas for Arabica Coffee were identified by Pearson correlation analysis and the percentage contribution of the Jackknife method in the Max Ent model:the maximum temperature in the warmest month(Bio5),the minimum temperature in the coldest month(Bio6),annual precipitation(Bio12),altitude,slope,sand,and silt.These environmental factors determine the probability of distribution of ecologically suitable areas for Arabica Coffee,with a cumulative contribution of90.1%to the potential geographical distribution of Arabica Coffee.(3)Under three different climate scenarios(SSPs126,SSPs370,and SSPs585)from 2021 to2100,the Max Ent model and the AHP-GIS predicted an increasing trend in the area of the most suitable zone for Arabica Coffee,mainly concentrated in areas such as southwest Yunnan and southeast Yunnan.Max Ent model predicted that the suitable area of Arabica Coffee increases first and then decreases,and the change range was mainly concentrated in western,southern,central,and eastern Yunnan.AHP-GIS technology predicted that the suitable area of Arabica Coffee showed a decreasing trend,and the change range was mainly concentrated in western,southwest,central,and southeast Yunnan.(4)Under the future climate scenario model,Max Ent and AHP-GIS predicted that the area of the highly-suitable regions would increase by 1.85×10~4-12.41×10~4 km~2 and 3.37×10~4-5.99×10~4km~2respectively from 2021 to 2100,which were mainly concentrated in west,southwest and southeast Yunnan.The most significant increase in the area of highly-suitable regions in both models was in the SSPs585 scenario.The largest shrinkage area in the Max Ent model was1.61×10~4 km~2 in 2061-2080 in the SSPs370 scenario.(5)The distribution of the highly-suitable regions for Arabica Coffee migrated northward generally to higher altitude and higher latitude,and the migration distance was 27.39-100.78 km.The prediction results of the two models were that under the scenario of SSPs585,the migration distance was the largest from 2081 to 2100,and the migration centroid was from Puer to Yuxi. |
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