Measles Epidemiological Characteristics Analysis And Variation Tendency In Changchun City,2007-2016

Objective:To understand the epidemiological characteristics of measles epidemics in Changchun from 2007 to 2016,analyzing the three distributions by statistical methods and to find out the regularity of measles incidence,key areas and susceptible populations so as to evaluate the current status and prevention and control effects of measles prevention and control.The work has weak links,putting forward relevant suggestions and further prevention.To provide a theoretical basis for the better implementation of measles prevention and early realization of the goal of eliminating measles.Methods:The object of the study was measles cases reported in Changchun from 2007 to2016.The measles case data were collected from Measles Surveillance System?MSS?.The data on the rate of inoculation came from the Department of Plan Immunology of the Changchun Center for Disease Control and Prevention,the demographic data came from China Statistical Yearbook.The measles data were collected and compiled to analyze and prevent the measles epidemic in the past 10 years in Changchun City.In this paper,using Excel 2013 and SPSS 20.0 for statistical analysis.GM?1,1?gray model uses R language.Qualitative data application test,inspection level of 0.05.Results:1.The National Measles Epidemic and the Status of Measles in Changchun CityThe incidence of measles in Changchun City is similar to the incidence of measles in the country but there are differences.From 2008 to 2012,the incidence of measles in our country showed a decreasing trend,after all,there was a trend of recovery.In 2012,it reached the lowest point in 10 years.2.Regional distribution of measles epidemic in Changchun City during2007-2016The largest number of cases in the seven urban areasof Changchun City was Luyuan District,.Among the three counties?cities?,the most common case was Nong'an,followed by Dehui and Yushu.Judging from the incidence rate,the highest incidence rate in the seven urban areas is still Luyuan?39.180/100000?.The incidence rates in the three counties?cities?were Nong'an?8.728/100000?,Dehui?3.943/100000?,and Yushu?3.901/100000?.3.Time distribution of measles epidemic in Changchun City during 2007-2016There is 1667 cases of measles in Changchun City between 2007 and 2016.The most reported cases were 854 cases in 2014,and the least reported case was 1 person in 2012.From 2007 to 2016,the number of measles cases in Changchun City was high in April to June.Therefore,spring and summer is the epidemic season of measles in Changchun City.4.Population Distribution of Measles Epidemic in Changchun City in 2007-2016The incidence of measles in Changchun City during the past 10 years presented two peaks.The high measles age group in Changchun City is 8 to 23 months and 15to 40 years old,with a composition ratio of 38.6%and 36%respectively.Between 2009 and 2012 when the measles eradication operation and the measles vaccination campaign for children were formally implemented.The age group from 8months to 14 years was the age group covered by the immunization program.The proportion of the age group and the proportion of other age groups were statistically analyzed.The difference was statistically significant??²=19.070,P=0.002?.The proportion of measles cases not registered in the province is very small in Changchun city,and the proportion of measles cases per year in 2007-2016 was less than 5%.There was no significant difference between the non-local domicile cases and the total cases of that year??²=2.464,P=0.292?.The result of the trend?²test was??²=1.275,P=0.259?,indicating that there was no significant increase in non-local registered households.The occupational distribution of measles cases in Changchun City is diversified.The proportion of scattered children is the highest?49.7%?,and the incidence rate?11.009/10 million?is also the highest.The second and third highest rankings were household management,housework,unemployed at home,and student groups,which accounted for 14.8%and 11.9%respectively.In the teacher profession,medical staff and retired staff are the groups with the lowest incidence of measles,and the proportions are 0.5%,0.5%,and 0.4%.5.History of measles immunization in 2007-2016 in Changchun CityFrom 2007 to 2016,the immunization history and immunization history in measles cases in Changchun City accounted for 59.8%and 15.2%,respectively.Unknown history of immunization accounted for 25%.The greater the number of vaccinations,the inversely related to the possibility of measles disease.In the two age groups of August and August to August,the non-immune history constituted a relatively high proportion,with the proportions of non-immune history being 95.8%and 76.7%respectively.The age groups of 2 to 6 years and 7 to 14 years The composition of immunization history was relatively high,53.6%and 41.4%,respectively;the immunization history and immunization history were unknown in the15 to 40 year old and?41year old age groups,and the proportion of non-immunological history was 41.4%and 52.3%respectively.The unknown proportions of immunization were 55.3%and 46.8%respectively.The regions with the most measles-free immunization history,immunization history,and immunization history in different regions of Changchun City are the green parks,with the least areas being Yushu,Chaoyang,and Nong'an.The areas with the highest composition ratio are Nong'an,Yushu and Chaoyang Districts.The lowest areas are Nanguan District,Kuancheng District,and Nong'an.6.Situation of Measles Vaccination in Changchun City in 2007-2016The routine immunization rate has little fluctuation and is relatively stable.In2015,the maximum value reached 10 years,and the vaccination rate reached 99%.Enhanced vaccination has shown continuous growth year by year.The maximum inoculation rate was 98.7%in 2013.According to the report of the vaccination rate,the routine immunization of basic measles vaccination and immunization of the measles from 2007 to 2016 were counted.The average vaccination rate was 98.5%in the routine vaccination,and the average vaccination rate was 95.8%in the vaccination.From 2007 to 2016,the routine immunization rate of measles in all counties?districts?of Changchun City was the best among the seven urban areas in Chaoyang District.The coverage rate was99.0%.The best inoculation rate among the three counties and cities was eucalyptus.The inoculation rate was 96.8%.To strengthen the immunization coverage rate,the best inoculation rate in 7 urban areas is wide urban areas,the coverage rate is 99.9%.Among the three counties,the best inoculation rate was eucalyptus,with an inoculation rate of 97.6%.7.Clinical features of measles cases in Changchun from 2007 to 2016Among 1167 cases of measles in Changchun City,98.1%had fever,98.5%had rash,83.6%had cough,66.2%had catarrhal symptoms,61.7%had conjunctivitis,and67.8%had Koch's plaque,12.7%of people with enlarged lymph nodes,11.5%of people have joint pain.For the?² test of?1 dose and 0 dose of vaccination,the results showed that fever,cough,catarrhal symptoms,conjunctivitis,and Kirsch's spots were all statistically different?P<0.05?.8.GM?1,1?model to predict the incidence of measles in Changchun in 2017R software,the development coefficient a=-1.4438 and the gray amount u=22.0408 are calculated.The function model is constructed as follows:^??=17.06390)^1.44?-1?-15.2639.The correlation degree r=0.988,when?=0.5 is satisfied,the correlation degree r>0.6,the correlation degree is one,and the prediction accuracy is excellent.The goodness-of-fit test showed that the posterior difference ratio C=S₂/S₁=0.120,C<0.35,the small error probability P value was 1.000 and the model test accuracy was 1?good?,which could be used for extrapolation prediction.The prediction of the incidence of measles in Changchun City in 2017 is0.135/100,000 by the GM?1,1?model.Conclusion:The epidemic situation of measles in Changchun City is unstable,showing a clear seasonal distribution,with high incidence months from April to June,and spring and summer is the epidemic season of Changchun measles;Changchun measles is geographically distributed in the west of Lucheng District in the urban area and Nong'an County in the northwest of the region.The distribution of the population is mainly scattered children.The low age group and the adult group have a bimodal distribution.The household registration is mainly based on local household registration.The population with no immunization history is mainly composed of people of low age group.The population with unknown immunization history is mainly composed of people of high age group;Changchun City needs to increase adult intensive vaccination with hemp vaccine,and it is necessary to strengthen publicity and education for routinely vaccinated people.The intensity of work,timely vaccination,improve public health effects.Routine immunization rate volatility,enhanced immunization rates increased year by year.The routine immunization work in our city still needs to be strengthened,and the progress of the strengthening of immunization progresses steadily;it is of great significance to strengthen the immunization to reduce the incidence of measles.Clinical characteristics studies have shown that the clinical features of measles have changed under the intervention of vaccines,indicating that the inoculation of MCV is of great significance in reducing the risk of the disease and reducing the clinical symptoms.The GM?1,1?model predicts a decreasing trend in the incidence of measles in Changchun City in 2017.This shows that Changchun City has taken a step closer to the goal of eliminating measles.It is necessary to improve related policies based on the effectiveness of the current work and to consistently eliminate measles.