| Objectives To analyze the influence of meteorological factors on the number of hospitalized stroke patients in tangshan city,and to provide scientific basis for effective intervention measures to protect the sensitive population.Methods Data of cerebral apoplexy cases admitted to three grade a hospitals in tangshan city during the five-year period from January 1,2014 to December 31,2018 were selected,as well as meteorological data of tangshan city during the same period.Spearman correlation was used to analyze the correlation between meteorological factors and daily hospitalization number in tangshan city.Time series analysis is an analysis method that analyzes the law of change with time and predicts the future trend by building model fitting.It has been widely used in various disciplines,mostly to analyze the short-term effects of weather changes on population health outcomes.A cross matrix was established for the inpatient data and meteorological indicators of stroke,with the daily inpatient number as the dependent variable.On the basis of controlling the seasonal and long-term trends and the day-of-week effects,the correlation between meteorological indicators and the number of inpatient patients with stroke was fitted by using the distributed lag nonlinear model.R software was used for all statistical tests and models(version 3.2.0),and the distributed lag nonlinear model was fitted by "DLNM" package.Results 1 In this study,21448 patients who were admitted to the hospital due to acute cerebral infarction or cerebral hemorrhage were investigated and included,including13092 males(61.04%)and 8356 females(38.96%),with an average age of(63.0212.87).Among them,there were 2886 cases of cerebral hemorrhage and 18,562 cases of cerebral infarction.The mean age of cerebral infarction was(65.39 11.61)years old,and the sex ratio was 1.53:1.The data showed that men were more likely than women to be hospitalized for either cerebral infarction or cerebral hemorrhage.In the age group,the proportion of hospitalized patients with cerebral hemorrhage and cerebral infarction was the highest in the 60-age group,and the total number of stroke was the highest in the 60-age group,accounting for 34.19%.2 The mean temperature,maximum temperature,minimum temperature,average wind speed and maximum wind speed were positively correlated with the number of admitted patients with cerebral infarction(r>0),and the lowest,highest and average air pressure were negatively correlated with the number of admitted patients with cerebral infarction(r<0).The average temperature in more than15℃,its cumulative RR values and 95% confidence interval,all below 1,prompt the average temperature of 15℃ above can reduce hospitalized cases of cerebral infarction.14 ℃,the highest temperature was minus its minimum cumulative effect,and0.462(95% CI: 0.305 0.700),the highest temperature under 10℃,the cumulative RR value and 95% CI all below 1,prompt the highest temperature under 10℃ can reduce the hospitalized cases of cerebral infarction.Tips below 10℃,the highest temperature of presentation in reducing the risk of admission,the lowest temperature below 3.5℃,the hospital is also reduce the risk and show less cerebral infarction in hospital when in low temperature.Lagging in 14 days,the temperature less than 1℃,the temperature is lower,the smaller cerebral infarction risk of admission.3 Average temperature,maximumtemperature,and minimum temperature were negatively correlated with cerebral hemorrhage(r<0),and the lowest,highest,and average air pressure were positively correlated with the number of hospitalized patients with cerebral hemorrhage(r>0).(including14℃,the average temperature in minimum cumulative effect in April,0.801(95% CI: 0.360-1.783),when the average temperature 7℃,21,minimum cumulative effect,was 13.359(95% CI: 0.797-224.010).The highest temperature of 24℃,the minimum cumulative effect,0.307(95% CI:0.148-0.634),the highest temperature of the cumulative effect has not been significantly more than 1,the RR value maximum when 6℃,the highest temperature of 31.939(95%CI:4.690-217.509),and suggest high and low temperature can make cerebral hemorrhage admitted by the increase in the number.Conclusions 1 Cerebral hemorrhage was positively correlated with air temperature,negatively correlated with air pressure,and presented a u-shaped nonlinear relationship in the cumulative effect.There was no significant dose-response relationship in cerebral infarction.2 The effect of temperature on the number of hospitalized patients with cerebral infarction and cerebral hemorrhage has hysteresis effect and cumulative effect.Figure 5;Table10;Reference118. |
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