The Predictive Value Of Caprini Model For Venous Thromboembolism In Severe Patients

Objectives The aim of this study is to test the validity of Caprini risk assessment scale in identifying critical patients with high venous thromboembolism risks and to screen out the high-risk factors for VTE in patients in intensive care units.Methods A case-control study was conducted,with 72 VTE patients who were admitted to the of the North China Univercity of Science and Technology Affiliated Hospital from October 2012 to October 2017 in the case group,and 144 patients who had not had VTE in the same period were randomly selected as the control group.The clinical data,treatment and other related data were collected retrospectively.Their VTE risks were saaessed using the Caprini risk assessment scale.By plotting the receivr operating characteristic curve(ROC),the optimal diagnostic threshold value of Caprini model for VTE in severe patients was calculated.Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to establish the association between Caprini risk classification and the presence of VTE.Results The Caprini scores of patients in the case group(10.50 2.91)was significantly higher than that in the control group(6.64 2.51),and the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05).There was a statistically significant difference in the distribution of Caprini risk levels between the case group and the control group(P<0.05),and the risk of VTE was 17.000 times higher in high-risk patients than in non-high-risk patients(95%CI:2.357-121.701).Caprini model had a sensitivity of 0.764 and a specificity of 0.812 for predicting VTE in severe patients,with an optimal diagnostic threshold of 8.5 points.Logistic regression analysis showed that lower limb swelling,malignant tumor(before or now),need to stay in bed(> 3 days),stroke(< 1 month)and hip,pelvis or lower extremity fractures were the main risk factors in patients with VTE.Among them,hip,pelvis or lower limb fractures,stroke(<1 month)were the most closely related to the occurrence of VTE events.In terms of preventive treatment for VTE,the prevention rate in the control group(55.6%)was significantly higher than that in the case group(37.5%),and the difference was statistically significant(P < 0.05).Conclusions 1 Caprini risk assessment scale can effectively predict the risk of thrombosis in patients with servious illness.2 For severe patients with lower limb swelling,malignant tumor(past or present),need to stay in bed(> for 3 days),stroke(<1 month),hip,pelvis or lower limb fracture and other risk factors of VTE,more attention should be paid by clinicians,and appropriate preventive measures should be given as soon as possible.Figure 2;Table 8;Reference 169...