The Study On Myanmar's Political Transition(1988-2015)

Ne Win overthrew the original parliamentary democracy of Myanmar via a military coup and installed a totalitarian regime in 1962.However,the Ne Win Administration was overthrown by another military coup after the "88 Event" in 1988,which led to an imbalance of Myanmar's political system.In 1990,the National League for Democracy(NLD)won its independent cabinet in Myanmar's national election.However,the New Military Administration(NMA)appeared an opportunistic behavior because of the NLD's uncompromising attitude to the NMA.Myanmar therefrom has been under an authoritarian rule of the NMA In the early period of the reign,the main goal of the NMA was to establish its interest safeguard mechanism as strengthening its rule over various fields as reducing its costs by establishing Pareto-improved institutions.In 2003,the NMA formulated a “seven-step democratic road map” and set out to orientate Myanmar's political transition.According to this road map,the 2008 Constitution was established and the 2010 election was held.In 2011,Thein Sein Administration came to power,which meant that Myanmar achieved a smooth political transition from an authoritarian regime to a democratic one.In 2015,Myanmar held the second national election.The NLD came to power,Myanmar achieved its first political party rotation.The political development of Myanmar entered a new era.This article takes the political transition of Myanmar(1988-2015)as the research object,uses institutional transition theory to analyze its two political transitions since 1988.On the basis of that,this article argues that the political transition of Myanmar is a process of NMA-orientated interaction change and also a gradual political reform.The legitimacy dilemma of the authoritarian regime,the “learning by doing” of political forces involved in each other's game process,the political psychology of people's desire for change,the demonstration effect of Indonesia on Myanmar and international pressure have jointly promoted the Myanmar's political transition.Nowadays,Myanmar has established a democratic system,which is more adaptable and efficient than the authoritarian one.Myanmar's political system was accomplished from an enforcement to an automatic implementation and finally re-formed a new institutional equilibrium.However,this equilibrium is fragile.The New Military Group is still strong.There is a long way for Myanmar to genuinely achieve its national reconciliation.