Research On The Demand And Supply Of Long-term Care Service For The Elderly In Ji'nan

With the progress of medical technology in China,the average life span of the population is generally prolonged.The aging of our population is also increasing.The demand for long-term care services in the elderly is increasing rapidly.The problem of aging in Ji'nan increasingly make Ji'nan's elderly long-term care service becomes more and more important,therefore,to understand the current situation and forecast of supply and demand of long-term care for the elderly people in Ji'nan,to provide services to meet the long-term care needs of the elderly,and actively cope with the aging problem,guarantee the quality of life of the elderly,it is of great importance to build long-term care Ji'nan's system and building a harmonious society.Based on the theory of body loss and Maslow's hierarchy of needs theory,this paper uses questionnaires and interviews to study the current situation and development trend of the elderly's long-term care service from two aspects of demand and supply.On the demand research,firstly describe the status quo of the elderly in Ji'nan,using PADIS-INT population forecast model to forecast Ji'nan's aging development trend;secondly,conducted a survey through intention questionnaire and long-term care needs of the elderly in Ji'nan and the demand,and through the investigation of the current situation of Ji'nan,the long-term care needs of the elderly are again the proportion of energy analysis;questionnaire of 60 years people lose based on the predicted 2020-2030 years in Ji'nan can lose the number of the elderly,the prediction results show that in Ji'nan in 2030,over the age of 60 disabled elderly will reach 280 thousand and 600;finally,according to the number of the predicted number of disabled elderly Ji'nan,2020-2030 years of longterm care for the elderly and nursing bed demand in Ji'nan in 2030 the elderly long term care personnel demand of about 37 thousand and 500 people,nursing The bed demand will reach 43 thousand.In the study of supply,analyzes the supply situation and supply of nursing beds through field investigation,interviews and other methods refer to the literature of Ji'nan city elderly long-term care services supply,nursing staff,and the number of 2020-2030 years in Ji'nan,the elderly long-term nursing staff and nursing beds are predicted and the results show the nursing staff in Ji'nan in 2030,the long-term supply of the elderly is about 5 thousand people,the supply of nursing bed is about 29 thousand and 400.Based on the above analysis results,we further studied the supply and demand contradiction of the elderly's long term care service in Ji'nan.We found that there were certain gaps in the long-term care services for the elderly in terms of nursing staff,nursing beds and so on.Finally,in view of the contradiction between supply and demand,the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward from the aspects of improving the guarantee system,strengthening the construction of the team and mobilizing the social resources.