Empirical Studey On The Demand And Supply Of Long Term Care For The Ederly In Shanghai

As the ever growing trend of the eldly,the increase rate of chronic disease and the change of family structure make the long-term care(LTC) for the aged more and more important. Thus, it is very meanful to know the present status of demand and supply of long-term care in Shanghai for the LTC system constructing, service supply to meet the elderly LTC demand and facing the challenge brought by the trend of the eldly to secure the living quality of the old and construct the harmony society.For the empirical study on demand, subjective demand, objective demand, capacity to pay and willingness to pay are investigated and analysed statisticaly by questionnaire survey and field observations and the LTC demand of the eldly in Shanghai is summarized and extracted.Based on the data of disability ratios of the eldly acquired by questionnaire survey and literature search, the relationship of the disability ratios of the eldly and the ages is analysed by Logistic model and the ratios that different age groups corresponding to are caculated. Then with the data of the amount of the eldly above65from different age groups in Shanghai from2010to2021predicted by the method of tendency amendment moving average, the total amount and structure of the eldly above65in Shanghai are predicted. The predicted results reveal that there will be468.5thousand old people who need long-term care in2020.On the basis of different demands, the bedspaces of community caring and institution caring in Shanghai from2010to2021are predicted respectively.Using the method of ISM, the influencing factors of LTC expenses are analysed and the result reveals that the amount of the edly that need LTC and the LTC pattern choices are the top influencing factors.Thus,with the predicted data of the two factors, the total amount and structure of the LTC expenses are predicted in three schemes which are the high,the middle and the low. The predicted results reveal that in2020the LTC expenses will be6.565to9.078billion yuan.For the empirical study on supply, LTC service supply are analysed and appraised from quantity, structure and quality respectively and the result reveals that the ratio of demand fulfillment is merely13%which is rather severe.Analyse the influencing factors of LTC supply and take the planning amount of bedspaces for LTC of Shanghai in future30years as the predicted supply value.For the empirical study on demand and supply, put the demand and supply model into the same coordinate system to build the gap model of demand between supply of LTC in Shanghai and observe the change rate and the gap value between demand and supply of LTC in Shanghai in2020.Raise the balance scheme with the feasibility analysis of LTC development in Shanghai,Countermeasures and suggestions are raised as follows:basing on families, supported by communites, government, market and society administer together steply and hierarchically to build the LTC systerm in Shanghai; realize the connection of medical, pension and caring system by constructing bidirection transfering consultation system; families and generations help each other.The innovations lie in analysing the relationship between the ratios of disability of the edly and ages utilizing Logistic model and caculating the value for the different age groups; analysing the influencing factors of LTC expenses in a comprehensive way and caculating the expenses, the amount and structure of bedspaces supply and the gap between demand and supply.