Operational Capability Analysis Based On Exploratory Analysis Method

As the pivotal part of the military operations research,operational capability analyzing mainly applied as the bolt of the decision making of commander.The combating complexity as well as uncertainty surge due to the remarkable change of modern operation patterns,thus it is of significant value for improving accuracy and rapidity of capability analyzing to go deeper into the modeling and analyzing methods.The exploratory analyzing method is adopted in this paper.It focus on building a bird-eye view into the issue before baring into details.This method is adapted to multiresolution models,which analyzing problems through separated layers,compensating the defective flaws in entity models of global analysis,and intuitively describing relations of every factor as well as their influences on operational indexes.This paper includes following focus:(1)Proposing a modeling methods and framework based on the influence diagram to meet the demands of exploratory analysis modeling in operational analysis.It implement the top-down modeling principle through building bi-direction multiresolution model.The framework indicates of operational efficiency indexes and a quantitative relationship model of SEM-based operation efficiency and capability.(2)Screening the factors by controlled sequential factorial design method(CSFD)to coping with combination explosion of the excessive simulation factors,and proposing a CSFD-based screening method for two output which can find out the main effect factors and interaction factors,providing the essential factors interaction information for commander.(3)Building a multidimensional data model for operational capability analysis to deal with the massive data,and process the results with online analysis processing to find out the effects of operational factors.Then using Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm to rapidly optimize our operational employment strategy.(4)The air defense model is built to analysis the operational capability and testify the effectiveness of the exploratory analysis method.The process contains influence diagram modeling,factors screening,results analyzing and optimization.The result of simulation indicates that this method is feasible and comprehensive,providing a valuable reference for operational capability analyzing.