Studies On The Future Trend Of NATO's Strategy Adjustment

The study on NATO's strategy is an important field of NATO research.Nine years ago after the launch of NATO's last strategic concept in 2010,the security landscape in Europe has changed dramatically.The crisis in Ukraine has brought NATO to another turning point in its history as important as the outbreak of the cold war in 1947 and the end of the cold war in 1991.The Ukraine crisis in 2014 undoubtedly declared the full opening of the US-Russia confrontation.The United States defines Russia as a major threat and strategic competitor.As for Europe,it is true that the European security structure shows more characteristics of conflicts and confrontations,which is mainly reflected in the deterioration of US-Russia relations and "Russia-NATO" relations after the Ukraine crisis.Judging by the timing of launching NATO's new strategy,it has been nearly a decade after the last one,and it is time for the alliance to release its next.From the perspective of the development of European security situation,it is urgent for NATO to formulate the next strategic concept.Under this background,how NATO carries on its strategy adjustment will become the next hotspot of NATO research.As the most institutionalized political and military alliance in the world,the study of the strategic adjustment of NATO is conducive to the understanding of the characteristics of NATO as an international organization,the strategic interaction between the United States,Europe and Russia,and the changes of the security structure in Europe.From the perspective of China,the study of NATO's strategy adjustment can provide guidance for the future strategic interaction between China,the United States,Russia and Europe.This thesis selects four variables as the analysis framework of security strategy,including strategy environment,strategy threats,strategy targets and strategy measures and uses the analytical framework to do some comparative study on"frontier defense strategy","massive retaliation strategy" and "flexible response strategy" proposed by NATO during the cold war,and three new strategic concept were put forwarded by the NATO after the cold war in 1991,1999 and 2010 in order to figure out the motivation of NATO's new strategy.Through analysis,the thesis draws a conclusion:As for the strategy adjustment of NATO,we can say that some things have been changed while some things stay the same.For the former situation,since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis,the strategy adjustment of NATO began to return to the "world view" of the cold war in terms of reviewing its own functions and handling relations with Russia.The main line is to put more emphasis on"collective defense",to concern more about traditional security threats,and to regard Russia as the main source of threats.Specifically,in terms of strategy environment,the European security structure has gradually revealed some characteristics which exist during the cold war period.On the one hand,the enlargement of NATO led to the intensification of geopolitical struggles in Europe.On the other hand,the ideological factors have been re-reinforced by NATO.In terms of strategy threats,NATO sets Russia as the main threat source of the "Euro-Atlantic security order",emphasizes traditional security threats and considers Hybrid Warfare brought by Russia in Europe especially in Ukraine as the new kind of threat.In terms of strategy objectives,NATO pays more attention to the alliance goal of paper 5 "collective defense" of the north Atlantic treaty organization,and it emphasizes the response to traditional security threats,and attaches importance to the territorial security of Allies and partner countries.In terms of strategy measures,first,the strategy thought"frontier defense" that popular during the cold war period was re-emphasized.But NATO is unable and unnecessary to restore its cold war defense strategy because of the straits of limited defense spending and limited Russian threats.Therefore,NATO emphasizes the "multi-point and small-scale deployment" in the strategic frontier zone and the improvement of "the alliance's rapid response capacity" in some specific deployment,which is similar to the"limited frontier presence strategy" and"conflict prevention and crisis management strategy" proposed by NATO in 1991.Second,NATO asserts that its purpose of strengthening NATO's anti-missile system and enhancing nuclear deterrence is to deter Russia un-disguisedly.Third,NATO decides to postpone its enlargement.As for the latter situation,first,NATO will continue to adhere to "cooperative security" through expanding its partnership building process,including to handling non-traditional security threats through deepening the construction of partnership,for example,enhancing cooperation with the European Union,the CSCE and the United Nations.Second,NATO will insist to promote its reform and transformation to adapt to the overall European security environment.