Research On Potential Risks In The Policy Change From Demand-Side Management To Supply-Side Structural Reform

As a major policy change in the China's economic governance,in the last three years,the Supply-side Structural Reform(SSSR)has made great achievements,but there are still many problems ahead.SSSR is the unification of theoretical innovation and practical change.lt is an important and key area reform,and it must fundamentally remove the residual of the central planning economical system and establish a developed and mature market economy.The reform is very difficult,and the risk of policy change is also in keeping with it.From the political economic dynamic model of policy change,based on the logic of policy system,this paper constructs an analysis framework of the potential risk in the policy change from Demand-side management(DSM)to SSSR,and identifies five specific ones,namely:ideological contradictions,preference of policy-making,the distortions of policy-implementation,policy-monitoring ambiguity,and lack of policy-termination.With the theories of neo political economics,this paper explores the relationship between ideology,interest groups,official theory,information asymmetry and path dependence and policy changes,and clarifies the risks of policy changes.Specifically,the ideological contradictions of the policy change of SSSR is mainly reflected in the cognitive misunderstanding out of theoretical confusion,administrative management to replace marketing mechanism,reform measures to undermine the rule of law,negative slackening to delay reform.Preference of policy-making mainly manifested as the executive-led process and pressure downward transferring,short-term interests strategies leads to imbalance between supply and demand,local behaviors lead tc different treatment towards SOEs and private enterprises,social stability dominating.Distortions of policy-implementation is shown in alternative implementing,selective implementing,symbolic implementing,and incidental implementing.Poiicy-monitoring ambiguity is manifested by the lack of monitoring subjects,inadequate monitoring beforehand,weakening of monitoring in the event,and poor monitoring afterwards.The lack of policy-termination is reflected in the lack of policy evaluation,projects termination,policies termination and functions terminaticn.Based on the policy practice of SSSR,from the potential risks of policy change,this paper analyzes the negative impacts of the risks above.Without a mature ideology market,the driving force for reform will inevitably be difficult to sustain,and the reform environment will also be full of danger.Preferred policy-making will tear the consensus of reform,aggravate structural problems,and delay the opportunities of SSSR.The distortions of policy-implementation is detrimental to the rights and interests of related shareholders,the efforts may result in dispersion,and the target of economic transformation will fall through.The ambiguity of policy-monitoring is not conducive to ensuring the legitimacy of policies and is not conducive to the effective implementation,which ultimately leads to plight.And lack of policy-termination is detrimental to the scientific,authoritative and stable nature of the policy.