Study On The Factors Influencing The Results Of Civil Government's Anti-Military Coup

Military intervention is a political phenomenon that once existed widely in the developing countries of Asia,Africa and Latin America.Under the constant impact of the wave of democratization,relevant countries gradually began political transformation.Although the army was forced to withdraw from the political stage,it could still continue to intervene in politics based on the existing political inertia.The military coup in the democratic consolidation stage after the transformation was a prominent manifestation of this problem.However,it is worth noting that although the same political transformation is facing the challenge of military coup by the military,the civil governments of different countries and even the civil governments of the same country have achieved different results in different periods.What factors played an important role in the outcome of the anti-military coup against the civilian government?What is the causal mechanism by which it works?Therefore,this study was conducted.The study begins by categorizing specific coup scenarios and identifying so-called"hard coups" in which soldiers violently seize power.After that,this study started from the "anti-military coup" response on the official government side during the implementation process of "hard coup",conducted logical deduction by combining the two inferences of the coup scenario,carried out successively,and finally integrated into the analytical framework of this study.As the result of the civilian government's military coup for the study of the dependent variable,the "internal differentiation of the army","the army's external balance" and "representative" of the government,"the government's economic achievements" as the independent variable,"the government's military advantage","the government's public opinion advantage" and "government information shape advantage" three aspects advantage as intermediary variable structures,analysis framework.The study is to compare the history analysis as the main research methods,from the modern history of frequent military coup in 1962,Turkey in 1980,2016,three times the experience as Turkey's national military coup is object,in the case and to experience Moore,the government of Egypt's military coup in 2013 as a case with the case of Turkey countries comparative analysis between objects.After a case of the empirical analysis,the study argues that its validity analysis framework is proposed,where the independent variables "splits in the army" and "force" of the government,intermediary variables and shape "government information" compared to the other in terms of design variables,and the final result of causal relationship appears to be the most significant,so you can draw a clear conclusion is that the army is a serious differentiation and bring the government's force shaping and information advantages for end civilian government has significant effect against the success of a military coup.But on the other hand,unfortunately the variables associated with "public opinion"advantages "" the government's public opinion," the government's representative ","the government's economic performance and the correlation of the final result is relatively fuzzy,so it is necessary to frame next to some adjustments and introducing other cases to fully test these variables and whether there is a significant causal relationship between the final result.