Analysis And Countermeasures On The Political Risk Factors Of China's OFDI To "One Belt And One Road" Countries

With the promotion and construction of the “Belt and Road Initiative” entering a critical period,the political risks faced by China's projects directly invested along the “Belt and Road” have gradually begun to be exposed.Many Chinese “One Belt and One Road” investment and construction projects have been cancelled or paused by the host country.stop.Under this circumstance,studying the political risk factors and their influences in the countries along the “Belt and Road” and putting forward corresponding countermeasures has important practical significance for China to further promote the “One Belt and One Road” investment construction.This paper first summarizes and organizes the theories related to direct investment and political risk,and on the basis of other scholars' research,carries out research on the political risk factors of China's “One Belt and One Road” direct investment.This article starts from analyzing the status quo of political risk along the “One Belt and One Road”,and then the main political risk factors of China's investment in the countries along the “Belt and Road” are classified and analyzed from the three levels: sovereign political risk,economic and social risk and international political risk.And this paper also analyzes the theoretical impact of various political risk factors on China's "One Belt and One Road" direct investment.This paper also empirically analyzes the impact of political risk factors on China's “One Belt and One Road” direct investment.The empirical analysis shows that in the short term,China's direct investment preference is to the “Belt and Road” countries with strong “government effectiveness”.In the long run,China's direct investment preference is country with high “government effectiveness”,“rule of law”,and “internal political conflicts”.As for the reason why China's direct investment in the “Belt and Road” countries prefers the countries with intense internal political conflicts,this paper believes that it is because China's “One Belt and One Road” direct investment is more invested in countries with high geopolitical values resulting in the illusion that China's investment prefer countries with high internal conflicts.Among the countries with high geopolitical values,the major powers such as China,the United States,Russia and Europe all support or develop their own political factions,leading to the fragmentation of domestic political factions and the intensification of internal conflicts.It can be said that the internal political conflict of a country actually reflects to a certain extent how much the external powers attach importance to the political value of the country.In summary,China's direct investment in the “Belt and Road” preference is for high-political value countries with strong government administrative capabilities and sound laws and regulations.Finally,the paper proposes corresponding policies and suggestions for China's outward direct investment on how to cope with the political risks along the “Belt and Road” : From the macro perspective,the suggestions include supporting private capital to enter the “Belt and Road” investment market,strengthening diplomatic dialogue and military construction,and enhancing the influence of international public opinion.From the macro perspective,the suggestions include doing adequate research and preparation before the investment,strengthening communication during project construction,conducting risk monitoring and claiming compensation afterwards.