An Empirical Study On The Impact Of Population Aging On Industrial Structure Upgrading From The Perspective Of Financial Development

With the improvement of the quality of life of residents and the advancement of medical technology brought about by the continuous development of China's economic level,coupled with the double reduction of fertility and mortality,have made the current population aging phenomenon in society more and more serious.According to relevant statistics,the proportion of China's population aged 65 and over to the total population has increased from 5.6% in 1990 to 11.4% at the end of 2017.At present,China's population has entered an old-age society.The weakening of the demographic dividend brought about by the aging of the population puts new demands on the driving mode of economic development.At the same time,it also affects the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure.On the one hand,the aging of the population increases the fiscal expenditure,resulting in an increase in the cost of old-age care.The reduction of labor supply has forced enterprises to take the initiative to transform and upgrade,which has higher requirements for the level of financial development.Therefore,it is necessary to clarify the impact of the level of financial development on the aging of the industrial structure,and to alleviate the negative effects of population aging.Capital substitution of labor and promotion of industrial restructuring and upgrading also have certain practical significance.This paper starts from the perspective of financial development,and studies the relationship between population aging and industrial structure upgrading.Based on the relevant research,this paper theoretically analyzes the path of population aging to industrial upgrading from the perspective of financial development,from the intermediary effect,non-The linear effect and the path of the spatial spillover effect are analyzed in detail.In the empirical study,the data of 31 provinces and municipalities in China from 2002 to 2016 were selected.Through the mediation effect model,panel smooth transformation model and spatial Dubin model,the mediation effect of financial development on the aging of industrial structure on industrial structure upgrading was empirically analyzed.Linear effects and spatial spillover effects.Finally,based on the research conclusions and the status quo of China's development,it puts forward a substantive proposal to promote the upgrading of industrial structure under the circumstance of population aging.The main research is as follows.Firstly,according to the mediation effect model,the mediating effect of financial development in the aging of the industry on the upgrading of industrial structure is tested.The study finds that there is a masking effect between population aging and industrial structure,which also illustrates the variable in financial development.Under the influence of the population,the impact of population aging on the upgrading of industrial structure is not a simple linearity,and the possibility of nonlinearity should be further explored.Secondly,constructing a panel smooth transformation model with financial development level,financial scale,financial efficiency and financial structure as the conversion variables to test the nonlinear effect of population aging on industrial structure upgrading.The study found that the higher the level of financial development,the more significant Promote the aging of the population to upgrade the industrial structure;the financial structure based on the balance of financial institutions and the increase in the financial structure of the stock market capitalization has also significantly promoted the aging of the industrial structure;Obstruction;from the regional situation,Beijing and Shanghai crossed the threshold earlier and gave full play to the positive role of financial development.Finally,according to the spatial Dubin model,the regional heterogeneity and spatial spillover effects are analyzed.Firstly,from the national situation,the population aging and financial development level can promote the development of industrial structure,and the eastern and central industries are in the current industry.In the process of transformation and upgrading,the degree of aging is reduced.In the western part of China,the aging of the population has a significant hindrance to the upgrading of the industrial structure.Based on this,the paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations for the above research: steadily improve the level of financial development,(1)Broaden the channels of financial development through various means;(2)All regions must actively improve their innovation ability in the process of aging.The level of human capital;(3)According to the characteristics of regional development,combined with the regional economic foundation and development potential,adapt to local conditions,and develop corresponding industrial policies in a targeted manner.The main innovations in this paper are: the selection of perspectives is more detailed,starting from the capital elements in production factors,selecting relevant indicators of financial development,and analyzing the breakdown of indicators to analyze the impact of population aging on industrial structure upgrading,and analyzing its impacts and The role path can clarify its specific impact.The panel smooth transfer model is introduced to study the nonlinear dynamic impact of population aging on industrial structure upgrading from the perspective of financial development,and to analyze its possible threshold characteristics,which can improve the shortcomings in the research of dynamic panel and time series model in previous research.It enriches the research connotation of population aging.