An Empirical Analysis Of The Impact Of Population Ageing On Industrial Structure Upgrading

Before the comprehensive "two-child" policy took effect,our country was already facing an increasingly serious population ageing problem.The increasing population ageing and the delay in the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure have become two major challenges facing China's economic development.In order to explore the impact of population ageing on industrial structure upgrading,based on the transmission mechanism of population ageing on industrial structure upgrading,and based on the provincial panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2018,a Fixed-effect model and a panel threshold model were constructed for empirical study.First of all,the research background and significance,domestic and foreign research status,research content and research methods are summarized,and the population ageing and industrial structure involved in the paper are defined,comb the theory of demographic transition,Marxism production and consumption theory and other related theories.Secondly,the paper reviews the current situation of population ageing and industrial structure upgrading in China,and explores the transmission mechanism of population ageing influencing industrial structure upgrading from the perspectives of supply and demand.Thirdly,an empirical study on the impact of population ageing on the upgrading of industrial structure.This paper explores the linear effect of population ageing on industrial structure upgrading by constructing a fixed effect model to carry out regression analysis for the whole country and the east and the middle and West regions respectively.Because of the regional difference of industrial structure upgrading,a panel threshold model is constructed to explore the nonlinear influence of population ageing on industrial structure upgrading from the perspectives of science and technology level,consumption expenditure and population migration.The empirical results show that there is a single threshold effect on the level of science and technology,and the positive effect of aging on the upgrading of industrial structure deepens after crossing the threshold,and there is a double threshold effect on consumption expenditure,when the first threshold is notcrossed,the impact of aging on the upgrading of industrial structure is negative,and the positive impact of aging on the upgrading of industrial structure continues to deepen as consumption expenditure crosses the threshold one after another,the aging has a positive influence on the upgrading of industrial structure.Finally,based on the above theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,the paper puts forward some policy recommendations to mitigate the adverse effects of population ageing and promote the industrial restructuring and upgrading.