An Analysis Of Influential Factors On Construction Of Control Regime Of The South China Sea Issue

The South China Sea issue is one of the most complex disputes in contemporary international community.The South China Sea issue is deeply concerned with the sovereignty and territorial integrity of China,the peaceful development of China as well as the stability and prosperity of Southeast Asia.It is of great theoretical and practical significance to academically discuss the control regime of the South China Sea issue.The core question of this thesis is which factors influence the construction of “the Code of Conduct for the South China Sea”(“COC”)? The current literatures rarely answer the question.There are mainly two viewpoints in previous studies.First,it is believed that the complexity and sensitivity of the South China Sea issue hinders the construction of “COC”.Second,it is considered that China's attitude impedes the construction of “COC”.This thesis argues that there are still much space for improvement in current researches and the second point is biased as well.On this basis,the thesis will provide more detailed and comprehensive explanations.This thesis divides the historical process of the construction of “COC” into four stages and divides the South China Sea sovereign claimants into two major actors who are China and related ASEAN countries.On this basis,this thesis adopts process tracing,comparative analysis,game theory and other research methods to discuss the influential factors of construction of “COC”.This thesis simplifies the standpoints of the South China Sea sovereign claimants in construction of “COC” into two choices.According to whether being in line with the national interests,this thesis assigns value to the main income of each claimant based on their choice and calculates their total income,and then,establishes the game payoff matrix.Through the analysis of payoff matrix,this thesis draws major conclusions as follows.The driving forces of the construction of “COC” include: maintaining vested interests in the South China Sea,preventing the internationalization of the South China Sea issue,serving the national grand strategy,safeguarding peace and stability of the South China Sea and promoting the development of Sino-ASEAN relations.The obstructive factors include: fierce sovereignty conflicts and the outside powers involvement in the South China Sea issue.At various stages of the construction of “COC”,the above influential factors affect the preference distribution of all parties in the game of “COC” construction in different combinations.These result that the process of “COC” construction is tortuous.Finally,this thesis forecasts the future of “COC” and puts forward relevant policy recommendations for China.