Between The Policy Instability And China's Foreign Trade-The Empirical Evidence From Term Limits Of Democratic States

Forty years since the reform and opening up,China's foreign trade has realized the historical leap of growth,trade scale,trade structure and trade market present earthshaking changes and highlights.From 1978 to 1978,the total export-import value increased from 35.5 billion yuan to 27.8 trillion yuan with an average annual growth rate of 18.6%,782 times increase.The proportion of global trade share was from 0.8% before the reform and opening up to 11.5% in 2017,became the world's second largest trading nation,and built trade partnership with 231 countries and regions in the world.The quality and efficiency of China's foreign trade both ascend,and the ministry of foreign trade growth cannot leave the world economy,meanwhile,because of the differences between world political,economic environment,the rule of law,trade policy orientation,market characteristics and many other factors,it also faced many difficulties and challenges,subjected to the trade protectionism,the multilateral trade system,trade friction,such as reality,the survival and development of foreign trade enterprises are seriously affected by the more tighter international environment.Therefore,how to solve China's foreign trade problems and promote good cooperative relations with its trading partners has became a key issue in the field of foreign trade research.In many factors of affecting foreign trade,that national leaders,as an important role of foreign political relations,play a role can not be ignored,his country's political behavior will affect policy direction in the field of economy.In recent years,the government behavior and the affaction of the government leaders have been paied attention by many scholars,and though a form of research results revealed reveal the effect of "leader" in the development of social economy.Based on a panel data of leaders' term limits of 72 democratic countries from2003 to 2015,this paper examines the influence of policy instability caused by leaders' term limits on China's foreign trade.Overall,we find robust evidence that it doesn't exhibits linear relationship,but a significant inverted U relationship between them,especially on total trade and export trade.Further study shows that the influence of term limits of democratic states on China's foreign trade varies sharply with different democratic country leaders' attitude toward China.The results suggest that the inverted U relationship only exists in pro-China leaders.For anti-China leaders,it shows a negative linear relationship.Therefore,Attention should be paid to the changes of leaders' term limits when developing foreign trade;besides,it should consider leaders' attitude toward China,so as to change leaders' attitude toward China for establishing and maintaining favorable trade relationship between two sides.