Research On The Motivation Of The Trump Administration's Policy Adjustment Towards The DPRK

After the cold war,the United States formed a policy of containment and engagement towards the DPRK.With the continuous escalation of North Korea's nuclear test,DPRK has theoretically posed a nuclear deterrent to the United States How the Trump administration responds to the nuclear threat from North Korea has become the focus of academic attention.Since taking office,Trump has adjusted his policy towards North Korea.In the first stage,he focused on extreme pressure and tried to push North Korea back to the track of negotiation through maximum military deterrence,multi-level economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation.The second stage is a policy of limited engagement and pressure,including direct meetings between leaders,suspension of military exercises and adherence to economic sanctions.The two stages have both continuity and great difference.So,what exactly motivating the Trump administration's policy shift?How will its adjustment affect the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula and the security of surrounding areas?These questions are worthy of our deep thinking and exploration.Under the framework of neoclassical realism,this thesis extracts three variables to analyze the motivation of Trump's policy adjustment on North Korea,namely system pressure,cognitive intervention and decision supervision.The three variables,from the system level to the domestic unit level,from the cognitive process to the decision-making process,work together to promote the adjustment of Trump's North Korea policy.From the perspective of system factors,the threats and opportunities brought about by the changes in the regional pattern of Northeast Asia have formed an external driving force for the Trump administration.The gradual weakening of the North Korean nuclear threat is the most direct driving force for system transmission.The US strategic contraction brought about by the great changes and the historical proximity of North Korea-South Korea relations have created a positive environment and atmosphere for the Trump administration's adjustment of North Korea policy.From the perspective of cognitive intervention,the cognition of policy makers is the internal driving force of the Trump administration's policy adjustment to the DPRK.In particular,President Trump's perception of the North Korean leader and the US-DPRK dialogue situation has changed from negative to positive,and his decision-making team's awareness of North Korea 's policy has gradually coordinated which played an important role in policy adjustment.From the perspective of decision-making intervention,the oversight role of the legislature and social groups has promoted Trump's adjustment of the DPRK's policy.Through the exercise of legislative and supervisory powers,Congress has urged the Trump administration to use diplomatic means as the core to resolve the DPRK nuclear issue.Interest groups and public opinion in society have intervened in the government's tendency toward North Korea's policy and accelerated the Trump administration 's change in North Korea 's policy.This article will make an in-depth analysis of the motivation of the Trump administration's policy adjustment to the DPRK through the theoretical logic of neo-classical realism on input-intervention-output of policy formulationThrough the theoretical and systematic analysis of the reasons for Trump's policy adjustment to the DPRK,we can clarify the logic and connotation of the adjustment of the policy.It is of great significance for studying the future direction of US-DPRK policy,US-DPRK relations and the future development of denuclearization of the peninsula.