Impact Of Pressure Groups And Party Politics On Trade Relations Between Pakistan And India (1990-2019)

Indo-Pak rivalry is so enduring where politics plays an important role to shape the trade policies.Bilateral trade relations between India and Pakistan have a history of many decades with vacillation,protectionism,escalation,arch-enmity and pressure by interest groups,political engineering of parties for self-interest and their power maximization.However,favorable trade environment for a short span of time with new trade agreements can also be witnesses.Preferential trade agreements such as SAPTA,cooperation under the umbrella of SAARC,rounds of bilateral trade talks,and formal meetings of Pakistani and Indian delegations where bilateral talks begin between them to discuss and finalize the modalities of trade agreements,are major developments after 1990.Meanwhile,trade liberalization and development of trade institutions after 1990 also contributed in some aspects of Indo-Pak trade oriented foreign policy and negotiations but both countries could not fully cure themselves from the hassle relations due to certain political reasons which have badly affected Indo-Pak trade normalization.Both countries have a huge market to invest and a geostrategic location with a vast scope of trade and sustainability where positive list of trading items can be increases.Trade policies are influenced by the political parties,individuals,unions and pressure groups by exerting pressure on trade policy decision making procedure for their own survival and power maximalist rhetoric.Years between 1990 and 2019 are important in Indo-Pak trade relations because of some steps taken for the facilitation of trade and also series of political trajectories which triggered out enmity by suspending trade between two countries.Certain territorial clashes,self-interests of political parties,past and ongoing history of conflicts and war,pressure/interest groups and their propaganda and lobbying has raised a new question that domestic pressure groups and party politics effects India and Pakistan trade.To answer this question,several issues related to the politics and factors effecting foreign policy of both countries are analyzed briefly in this research.Findings have further analyzed that pressure groups use different techniques such as lobbying,propaganda,electioneering,building public opinion and such many other tools.They also sometime work with the coalition of ruling parties to influence the foreign policy decision making procedure for the protection of their own market at domestic level.Paper further elaborates that military and religious groups in India and Pakistan have a pre-dominant role in political engineering of both states.Religious groups play key role in organizing country wide protests to re-shape the trade policies for their own survival and power maximization.Intra-party conflicts are also oriented to the interest of political elites or their parties where they want to win elections to chair an office by scrapping of state interest and trade policy.Qualitative method for the analytical,explanatory and descriptive analysis is being carried out for the better understanding of the impact of politics on Indo-Pak trade relations.Secondary data which includes journal articles,books,conference papers,organizational reports,media reports,working papers,patent,web pages,hearings,statements of political leaders from both India and Pakistan,is analyzed and tested for the demonstration of Indo-Pak trade relations.Self-interest of political parties and pressure groups,their power maximization and role of pressure/interest groups in foreign policy formulation of India and Pakistan is analyzed with the help of neoclassical realism theory.This paper will further provide a platform for researchers to conceptualize nature of poliostricken trade policy of India and Pakistan and also the reasons and factors involved in it.This thesis includes five chapters.Chapter 1 introduces the detailed background of study with the help of available literature to develop a theoretical findings on how domestic pressure groups and party politics influence trade relations between Pakistan and India It is hypothesized that pressure groups mainly military,religious parties and industrialists including political parties and interest based divisions within those political parties are the reasons of malignity and hassle relations rather than Indo-Pak trade normalization for sustainability.Self-interest of pressure groups and their role in foreign trade policy decision making,pre-dominance of military in corporate sectors,role of business community and religious groups and unions with the help of neoclassical realism is analyzed for the given time frame.It is also described that how this qualitative paper based on analytical,explanatory and descriptive analysis would help scholars to understand and explore the new paradigms of the effects of politics on Indo-Pak trade relations.Chapter 2 discusses the background of Indo-Pak trade relations,institutional development and WTO membership and certain clauses which allow regional and bilateral trade arrangements.It is evident that both are members of GATT/WTO but they could not normalize their trade relations due to their domestic political reason and history of arch-enmity.Rise and fall in trade relations is evident that rise contains short span of time due to the continuous changes in foreign policy which is influenced by the pressure groups,self-interests of political parties and their leadership.Historically,Indo-Pak trade relations flourished at very initial stage of independence by signing new trade agreements and increasing exports and imports in different sectors but wars,conflicts,hatred and self-interests of different groups at both sides helped them to contain the tense relations.However newly elected Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif singed new trade deals with India by taking part in SAARC summits,SAPTA and increasing positive list of items that could be traded with India.New tariff lines also helped in the development but certain conflicts of interest incidents could not help India and Pakistan to flourish trade relations.Attack on Babri Masjid,attack on Indian Parliament,Mumbai Attack,Kashmir issue and country wide protests against the decision to grant MFN status to India and such many incidents show the struggle for the power maximalist rhetoric of different pressure groups who are losing from Indo-Pak trade.Chapter 3 briefly analyzes the core concepts of pressure groups their role in lobbying,propaganda,coalition,electioneering,building public opinion and exerting pressure on foreign policy.PUC,JKLF,CPLTD,FFC,WAPDA,AIL in Pakistan,ASSOCHAM,FICCI in India and such dozens of other companies are re-shaping the trade regime between India and Pakistan by exerting pressure on foreign policy.Military power is essential for a country among all other powers but its pre-dominant role in business has effected the trade between India and Pakistan because it boosted lack of competition.Military's dominance in industry whom Ayesha Sidiqqa calls “Milbus” refers to the capital that is used for the personal use of military fraternity especially the officer cadre.It is also believed that military in Pakistan has dominant role in shaping trade policy due to the presence of serving and veterans in all major institutions mainly,ministry of foreign affairs and finance ministry.Student unions,religious parties have also triggered out enmity by organizing country wide protests to exploit Hindu-Muslim riot rather than trade relations.These unions and organizations have deep rooted affiliations with the political parties where parties themselves need their coalition for their own political career.Chapter 4 analyzes the brief account of political parties of India and Pakistan and their political models based on self-interest,exploitation,assassinations,corruption,bribe,Dharna(sit-in),protests,rallies,political revenges,divisions within them and their role in shaping the anti-trade regime for their power maximization.It is analyzed that how these political parties keep themselves engaged in a political battle for selfsurvival,sustainability and stability of their own political regime by prioritizing their own interests over state interest.Manifesto of these political parties does not match with their commitments after taking charge of charge of the office.Most of the political parties of Pakistan do consider India as “enemy” and Indian political parties have same agenda for Pakistan.Assassination of Indira Gandhi,Rajeev Gandhi,Bhutto,Benazir and imprisonment of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and later President Zardari(who is known as Mr.10 percent)due to their offshore companies and London properties,are the clear examples of the self-interest and power maximalist rhetoric of political parties.These political parties have certain affiliations with industrialists,religious groups and it is believed that all of them need military support to stay in power.Such coalitions help them to finance their campaigns for winning elections and to stay in power.Such a way,religious groups and the industrialists who are favoring anti-trade regime between India and Pakistan,easily exert pressure on trade oriented foreign policy choices of India and Pakistan.Political parties have to compromise on these choices because of their self-interest and political survival.Chapter 5 is based on conclusion and recommendations.The hypothesized data on domestic pressure groups,political parties,their divisions and the self-interest is arguably tested with the help of available literature.It is concluded that the pressure groups(mainly military,industrialists),religious groups,student unions,self-interests of the political parties,divisions within them and their coalition with certain religious groups and business community for their own power maximalist rhetoric has greatly affected the trade oriented foreign policy of India and Pakistan.Interests of these groups are based on anti-trade regime between India and Pakistan,so they take necessary measures to oppose the new trade agreements and liberalization of trade for sustainability.This part has some recommendations based on the limitations of such pressure groups priorities of state interests over personal interest by educated the youth of India and Pakistan.