Research On The Life Cycle Evolution Of Terrorist Groups

Nowadays,terrorism has become one of the important factors affecting international security,and the September 11 attacks has pushed terrorism to a new height.Affected by the global terrorism,China's counter-terrorism has entered into a deep water zone.Reviewing the history of terrorism,we may know that terrorists are not born,and there are some rules in its development process.As one of the subjects of terrorism,terrorist groups show an evolutionary characteristic in time,which is a continuous changing dynamic process.Specifically,there are differences in the activity modes and affecting factors of a single terrorist group in different stages of its life cycle,and different terrorist groups show a certain degree of commonality and comparability in the process of their development,decline and death.Therefore,based on the evolution characteristics of the general models and patterns,we should study the evolution process of their life cycle.All these help to find the affecting factors for the survival,development and distinction of terrorism or terrorist groups,to find a breakthrough point in the process of the evolution of terrorist group life cycle.Thus we can take targeted countermeasures,and it also has an important theoretical and practical significance of the formulation of counterterrorism strategy in our country.Focusing on the main terrorist groups that have died out or are in recession,this paper has systematically studied the evolution rules of the life cycle of terrorist groups.To be more specific,it is divided into five parts.The first part is an introduction.It gives the research background,significance,objects and methods of this research,sorts out related theories,defines the concepts and data descriptions so as to lay a theory and data foundation as well as research framework for further studies.The second part is the construction of the life evolution model of the terrorist group.It analyzes the survival time of the terrorist group and divides the development stages.Then,an evolution model,on the basis of these analyses,is proposed,the features of which are described from three aspects: stage length,extreme point and inflection point.The third part gives the analysis of the life evolution model of terrorist groups.This part concentrates on the comprehensive analysis of horizontal and vertical dimensions.The horizontal dimension is the influencing factor of the life cycle of terrorist groups,and the vertical dimension is the stage length,extreme value point and inflection point.Based on the above two dimensions,the evolution pattern of terrorist groups can be divided into four modes:‘a type in a stable developing style',‘a type in a rapid rising and slow declining style',‘a type in a fast rising and declining style'and‘a type in a transforming way'.It also analyzesthe characteristics of these various models,finds facts to test these models and provides the targeted counter-terrorism strategies.The fourth part is the specific application of the life cycle evolution model of terrorist groups.In the light of China's anti-terrorism practices,the fourth part analyzes the main threats to China's national security posed by terrorist groups.It also takes the East Turkistan organization as an example to judge and analyze its life cycle evolution model,which is the type in a transforming way.Then it also proposes to solve this problem at its source,strengthen our governing strategies including de-radicalization.The final part makes a sort summary,comes to a conclusion,and puts forward the limitation and prospect of this research.