Research On Risk Assessment And Response To Terrorist Attacks In Sports Venues

Nowadays,there have been not only a large number of casualties and economic losses but also the impact of social stability of countries around the world due to the frequent occurrence of terrorist attacks.The stadium is highly crowded as an important place for holding large-scale cultural and sports events,so it is one of the noted targets of terrorist attacks.And then,it has present theoretical and practical significance to study the risk assessment and response of terrorist attacks in stadiums.In this thesis,we built the risk assessment model of the multi-target/multi-type terrorist attack based on relevant machine learning algorithms to understand the risk situation.The risk factors of terrorist attacks in sports venues had been analyzed in detail,which established the terrorist attack risk assessment element system and gave risk assessment results.In addition,we studied the simulation of crowd evacuation on terrorist attacks in stadiums,and gave some countermeasures,hoping to demonstrate some reference for the terrorist attack risk assessment and response management of stadiums.The main content includes three aspects.(1)The risk function model of the multi-target/multi-attack type terrorist attacks has been established based on K-means++ clustering analysis algorithms and Python programming language,which carried out the cluster analysis on the data of GDT from 2002 to 2016,resulting in 5 risk levels,It indicates the highest risk of terrorist attack by bombing / explosive attack on citizens themselves and private property.Furthermore,the generalization ability of the model was tested by the data of 2017 and the result shows the accuracy rate of 94.44%.We compare the present model with K-means,BP neural network and decision tree models.The results demonstrate some reference for the risk assessment and prevention strategies of the terrorist attacks.(2)Using the literature survey and expert consultation method,we analyzed the risk factors including threat,vulnerability and consequence of terrorist attacks in stadiums through a qualitative and quantitative approach,constructed the index system for risk assessment of terrorist attacks in stadiums and gymnasiums,calculated the risk assessment results,gave the risk levels and analyzed the risk reasons briefly.As could be seen from the results,because it had a higher risk level to the stadium building and surrounding personnel,it was necessary to expand the installation range of car blocking devices resulting from the car bomb attack.It indicated that human bombs had a higher risk level for stadiums,security screening,passage personnel and stand personnel.Therefore,the security checkpoints could be moved forward to decrease personnel density and reduce casualties.In addition,the measures should be used tostrengthen the control and detection of explosives.The sword and axe killing stands had a higher risk level,which should be involved in the creation of panic in the stadium by terrorists.(3)It had been carried out that the simulation of the crowd evacuation in stadiums caused by terrorist attacks through AnyLogic software.Meanwhile,we gave some recommendations for the terrorist attacks in the stadiums based on the results of the risk assessment and the simulation.In the department of the risk management,we give suggestions on strengthening the ability of obtaining and studying terrorist threat intelligence information,improving the ability of dangerous goods control,expanding publicity and education,and enhancing the ability of anti-terrorism actual combat;in the security system stadium,we present relevant suggestions on civil defense,physical defense and technical defense.